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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

A little calm returns but jury remains out

Wednesday 21 November 2018

After large falls in equities and oil we've seen a bit of respite as markets steady and risk sentiment improves but it's all very fragile out there still.

GBPUSD yesterday continued its recent decline to post lows of 1.2775 helped by the GBPJPY and GBPCHF selling but has since rebounded to 1.2820 as some of those short positions get bought back.Immediate offers at 1.2820 (as I tweeted last night) then 1.2840-50 where large option contract interest rolls off today then still around 1.2880-85, 1.2900, 1.2920 and 1.2950. Bids/demand building again at 1.2775-80 then 1.2750, 1.2720 and larger at 1.2700 still.

I remain GBP bearish overall and happy to jump on rallies then buy back in the dips while remaining core short, a strategy that continues to work well. Today's immediate focus continues to be Brexit with May meeting EU's Juncker while the Tory coup threat  remains in the shadows but poised to strike.Yesterday's appearance of BOE's Carney & Co in front of the Treasury Select Committee was largely lacking in any real impact with the various BOE bods all hedging their bets on future monetary policy. Carney is up to the mic again today at 15.15 GMT so we'll wait for any other potential news bombs.

EURGBP has been tightly bound with both the Euro and Pound falling and rising on the risk/USD sentiment changes.Buyers poised around 0.8880 again then 0.8850, 0.8830 and 0.8800 still with sellers now at 0.8920-25 and 0.8950 still.More lined up between 0.8980-00.

EURUSD fell to 1.1362 but we've now been up to 1.1410 before capping with EURJPY and EURCHF trades in play again.Immediate bids/support now at 1.1375-80 with some option expiries in play there and 1.1400 then more bids at 1.1350 still and 1.1320,1.1300 with sellers at 1.1420, 1.1450 then 1.1475-80 and larger at 1.1500 still.

USDJPY held yesterday's lows of 112.31 and has since rallied to 112.93 as the risk-on Yen supply helps to underpin.Immediate sell interest now at 113.00, 113.20 and 113.50 with bids building at 112.80, then larger at 112.50,112.30 and 112.001.80. I remain a rally seller buying back in the dips. Latest weekly US jobs and monthly durable goods data in the mix at 13.30 GMT.

USDCHF has also held 0.9900 with the Swiss Franc finding sellers again on the risk-on tones and EURCHF holding 1.1300. EURCHF bids/support now building between 1.1300-10 then 1.1280 with USDCHF at 0.9900 and 0.9980 still and the SNB can not be ruled out on either pair.Sellers poised around 1.1350 then 1.1380 and 1.1400 with USDCHF supply now around 0.9960 then 0.9980 and 1.0000. I'm happy to trade both sides of the price action at the moment.

AUDUSD fell through the recent support of 0.7250 to test the next decent line at 0.7200 with US-China trade concerns back in the mix as well as the AUDJPY selling. The change in risk sentiment though has seen a move back to test 0.7250 which should now prove pivotal. Bids/support now 0.7220 then 0.7200 and 0.7180 still with sellers lurking around 0.7250, 0.7265, 0.7280 and 0.7300. USDCAD continues to be bashed around on the oil price volatility and we've been up to 1.3318 from 1.3160 as oil prices plummeted before both steadying. Bids now at 1.3275-80 then 1.3250, 1.3220 and 1.3200 with sellers poised around 1.3320 and 1.3350.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so get your orders in to take full advantage of these moves.

Last night the mighty Shrimpers survived an FA Cup replay scare when conceding a 2-goal lead only to end up 6-2 winners. It was oh so cold on those terraces but all worth it in the end and we move into the 2nd Round for the first time in many a year. Tonight it's the turn of our youngsters in the FA Youth Cup. Good luck boys!

Have a good day out there one and all.

Interbank Rate 08.07 GMT GBPUSD   1.2805 EURUSD   1.1397 EURGBP   0.8898 GBPEUR   1.1237 USDJPY   112.84 USDCAD   1.3288 USDCHF   0.9947 GBPAUD   1.7700 GBPCAD   1.7021 GBPCHF   1.2740 GBPHKD   9.9277 EURHKD   8.8348

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