A mixed bag out there right now
Tuesday 8 March 2022
Another volatile 24 hours amid the increasing Ukraine crisis/countless headlines that's seen equity markets rise and retreat and rise again, Gold rally further then retreat, oil retreat then find a base, nickel jumps to $100,000 prompting the LME to suspend trading while in the ever-fickle world of FX the Euro has rallied from its lows with one eye on the ECB this Thursday but sellers remain poised. The Pound is still looking fragile.
Some JPY and CHF supply notable but neither enjoying full safe-haven demand given their exposure to rising energy costs too. Gold touches $2020 while Brent oil retreats to $120 from those heady 13-year highs of $136.80 but now back up to $123 ss I type as the roller-coaster ride continues and threats of banning Russian oil imports continue.Meanwhile conjecture over Central Bank rate hikes remains, particularly now in these increasingly fragile times, and still in the overall mix. Oh, and now we're getting headlines that the EU is considering a massive joint bond issue to fund energy purchases....
For new and older subscribers alike I will repeat my view that it's still a case of not over-analysing amid all the noise but keeping your focus on price action in core and cross-pairs and identify ranges and what levels present value for money. Algos will continue to knee-jerk price action on the variable headlines. Discipline is key in these whippy markets. If in doubt, stay out or at the very least keep positions trimmed/manageable.
GBPUSD: Has continued its downward trend and posted fresh lows of 1.3082 amid some better USD tones and EURGBP demand. EURGBP: A good bounce back from 0.8200 to now post 0.8322 amid the general EUR relief-rally but sellers will remain poised. ECB on Thursday in focus as well as that energy bond now. GBPJPY: New lows of 151.00 amid latest soft risk tones and some general GBP supply elsewhere and justifying my core belief for some time now. Bouncing as I type as equities stage a rally this morning.
EURUSD: A decent rally as mentioned above and posting highs of 1.0922 from a fresh base of 1.0850 but retreating again as I type. USDJPY: That old 115.20-25 pivot now supporting but equally sellers remain poised into 115.80-00. EURJPY: Holding 125.20 in the latest retreats but sellers prevailing at 126.20 atm in these ever fickle times.
USDCHF: Holding 0.9250 in the latest retreat helped by/adding to the EURCHF rally with SNB shadow lurking down here as I've been warning but sellers poised 0.9280-00 amid the fragile backdrop.EURCHF: Now holding 1.0050 and posting fresh highs of 1.1015 this morning as SNB looks to stem the tide a little and helped by general EUR demand. Rally sellers poised still.
AUDUSD: Finally seeing a reversal/reality check and falling to 0.7270 after breaking back down through 0.7350.
USDCAD: Capped now into 1.2840 after a good hold of 1.2800 amid the variable oil price and USD tones.I still think we'll see some two-way business amid all the uncertainty.Caution required though with so many variables.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 07.54 GMT