A new month but same old story
Thursday 1 July 2021
The end of month saw a USD positive bias that brought with it a renewed Yen supply per my tweets but a new month now underway and USD and risk sentiment remain variable/fragile.
This morning as I type we have comments from BOE's Bailey saying nothing new but the algos have pushed the Pound lower, once again showing the risk is to the downside.
Patience and discipline in trading are key as ever and not being greedy. The always over-hyped NFP data tomorrow increasingly in focus as markets continue to try and second-guess CBs on inflation. OPEC meeting today might offer some clues on oil price direction with the market factoring in strong increases by year-end.
GBPUSD: Support at 1.3800 now broken in this latest retreat but with large interest still at 1.3780 and 1.3750. I remain a rally seller but still expecting dip demand. Keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always per my tweets.
EURGBP: Still ranging 0.8560-0.8610 but pushing higher this morning off the lows as GBPUSD finds sellers.
GBPJPY: Strong Yen supply returning yesterday per my tweets amid all the month and H1 flows and that has helped underpin core pairs too. 154.00 proving a step too far so far but holding 153.50 in latest retreat.
I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. Risk to the downside though still overall.
EURUSD: Finding support at the key 1.1830-35 area as I type after further falls yesterday and still looking soggy per my tweet. USDJPY: Very much on the foot now from general USD demand still but underpinned also by the renewed JPY supply.Finding support now around 111.00 but sellers poised at 111.50 .EURJPY: 131.50 forming a good base now but rally sellers still poised into 132.00 and 132.20. Option interest today 131.25-30 should help support.USDCHF: Underpinned at 0.9230 now as EURUSD retreats further with the SNB ever vigilant (EURCHF anchored) and general USD demand prevailing.Sellers at 0.9280-00 poised. EURCHF: Holding 1.0960 now with SNB shadow/help ever present but sellers poised around 1.0980 still too.
AUDUSD: Capped into 0.7520 amid USD demand but found support around 0.7500 yesterday helped by those options per my tweet and warning here prior. A bit more interest today at 0.7500 too. USDCAD: Strong support area at 1.2360-80 still helped by the general USD demnd but capped by firmer oil price and now CADJPY demand notable amid JPY supply generally.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.32 BST