A new week, same story.
Monday 31 January 2022
Mixed risk sentiment still so we've seen more two-way business as the jury considers its verdict and second-guessing central banks of which we have the RBA tonight and BOE Thursday this week.
Mixed tones on the Greenback too wth final bank signals pointing to USD month-end demand but much of that will have been done already per my additional email last Friday. We shouldn't ignore the final 4pm London fix though today for any last minute business that needs to be done though. That demand has been competing with some more USD supply overall in past 24 hours but with better risk JPY weakness notble still. Oil remains underpinned.
As ever, a case of not over-analysing or second-guessing but keeping your focus on price action in core and cross-pairs and identify ranges and what levels present value for money. Patience invariably a virtue but don't confuse patience with being stubborn either in entry or exit. I will repeat that he who hesitates is often lost in these trading conditions.
GBPUSD: Support now at 1.3380-00 but failure on the rally into 1.3450 so far. BOE on Thursday in focus along with the usual political fall-out potential. EURGBP: A test of 0.8300-05 and currently holding amid the variable risk tones but sellers now poised at 0.8325-35. Good two-way business still albeit in tight range. GBPJPY: Support now at 154.80 then 154.50 after the firmer risk rally but failing into 155.20 so far as the jury remains out and core pairs find rally sellers.
EURUSD: 1.1140-50 support now but failing at 1.1180 amid the variable risk and USD tones. USDJPY: Still underpinned at 115.00-20 amid the month-end USD demand and better risk sentiment overall but rally failing this time at 115.60. EURJPY: 128.50-60 the support line still but failing around 129.00 amid the mixed risk plays.USDCHF: 0.9300-05 now the initial support after the firmer risk and USD tones and with SNB ever vigilant but with sellers poised 0.9320-40 still. EURCHF: Support line now at 1.0380 with SNB ever-present but sellers remain poised still as the pair climbs above 1.0400 amid the fickle risk sentiment.
AUDUSD: A decent bounce from 0.6965 and 0.7020 now providing support ahead of the RBA tonight and with commodity currencies feeling some love again. USDCAD: Failure into 1.2800 on Friday and a steady retreat since as oil remains underpinned after its wobble last week and with CADJPY demand once again notable.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.32 GMT