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  • Mike Paterson

All a little uncertain out there still

Friday 14 June 2019

Yes I know I keep banging on about fragile risk sentiment but we live in a fragile world and now we've seen the second attack in a month on tankers at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. The US is blaming Iran as tensions in the Middle East continue to rise. Oil and Gold both rallied strongly. Today's main data risk comes in the form of US Retail Sales at 12.30 GMT.


Meanwhile Boris Johnson confirmed his position as the favourite to win the Tory leadership contest and thus become UK PM and while the Pound found some initial comfort the reality check has since kicked in and we've seen GBP losses helped by EURGBP firming again and GBJPY once more in retreat.


GBPUSD once again failed above 1.2700 and this time not even testing 1.2720-30 let alone 1.2750-60 as the sell interest kicked in and we're and testing yesterday's lows of 1.2662.EURGBP continues to see good two-way business in a tight range with dips happily bought and rallies equally sold. GBPJPY has also found the sellers prevailing amid the core pairs turning lower again helped by the softer risk sentiment.


I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always as ranges remain tight.


EURUSD today has very large option expiry interest again at 1.1300 and that's preventing the pair from moving too far and we've seen the retreat hold 1.1265-70 on a couple of occasions. USDJPY has retreated again on the renewed Yen demand but still finding some decent dip buyers while USDCHF is still tightly bound as EURUSD and EURCHF both find the expected dip demand with the SNB ever watchful.


AUDUSD is still finding sellers on the bleaker domestic outlook and interest rate cut scenarios along with some good AUDJPY risk-off supply. Yesterday's option expiries also duly capped rallies. USDCAD staged a decent rally again as the oil price rally faded combined with some good CADJPY selling.


Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.


Have a good day/week-end out there one and all.


Interbank Rate 08.42 BST

GBPUSD   1.2668

EURUSD   1.1284

EURGBP   0.8909

GBPEUR   1.1223

GBPAUD   1.8353

GBPCAD   1.6892

GBPZAR   18.7934

GBPHKD   9.8215

USDJPY   108.18

USDZAR   14.8422

EURJPY   122.07

EURCHF   1.1207

EURHKD   8.7512

GBPJPY   137.02

AUDUSD   0.6900

USDCAD   1.3339

USDCHF   0.9932


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