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  • Mike Paterson

All change on risk, or is it?

Wednesday 14 August 2019

Yesterday Trump declared that some trade tariffs on China would be reduced and others delayed, although the full picture is still unclear, and we saw a sharp spike in Yen pairs as risk-off rapidly turned to risk-on. Throw in slightly better US CPI data suggesting that Fed rate cuts might not need to be as big as expected and we've seen markets in a whirl with equities higher and Gold/oil both tumbling.


GBPUSD tried to rally after better UK wages data but failed into 1.2100 as per the order boards and as I warned on Twitter. We've been down to 1.2045 since on the general USD and GBPJPY/GBPCHF demand but still being dragged around by Brexit bs and the fragile UK political backdrop. EURGBP trading 0.9250-0.9300 still amid the uncertain tones for both Euro and Pound and risk volatility. GBPJPY duly held 126.50 with that good demand on USDJPY at 105.00 I highlighted and then soared on the USDJPY tariff news-led rally .


I remain GBP bearish overall and will continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.No reason to change my view any time soon although we must be respectful, as ever of the fickle risk swings.


EURUSD failed around 1.1220 yet again (deja vu eh?) and has been down to 1.1160. Remains range bound amid all the EUR cross currency plays. USDJPY spiked to test 106.80 from 105.40 on the tariff talk but sellers/Yen buyers, including me were poised. USDCHF also rallied but tempered by EURCHF finding rally sellers again above 1.0900 amid the latest EURUSD supply but with the SNB ever watchful.


AUDUSD found some support from AUDJPY demand but remains tightly bound with sellers above 0.6800 helped by the fall in Gold. USDCAD found itself caught in a crossfire of CADJPY selling vs USD demand and falling oil prices.


Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.


Don't forget I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading this latest volatility, or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries that you might need some further help with.


Regular readers will know of my love of cricket as well as football and I shall be in the Pavilion at Lords for the remainder of the week to watch the England vs Australia Test match but will be getting my updates to you each day before I leave.


Have a good day out there one and all.


Interbank Rate 07.01 BST

GBPUSD   1.2059

EURGBP   0.9262

EURUSD   1.1169

GBPEUR   1.0796

GBPAUD   1.7760

GBPCAD   1.5948

GBPJPY   128.32

GBPZAR   18.2997

GBPHKD   9.3494

USDJPY   106.42

USDZAR   15.1770

EURJPY   118.85

EURCHF   1.0898

EURHKD   8.6600

AUDUSD   0.6789

USDCAD   1.3227

USDCHF   0.9757


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