All change this morning amid better risk tones
Friday 10 September 2021
Yesterday's soggy risk tones have turned around yet again this morning and a classic example of my mantra about not getting too carried away or greedy in these ever fickle markets. JPY supply evident again as European trading gets underway per my tweet and that's underpinning core pairs as equities, yields and commodities all show some strength after yesterday's slide.
Yesterday the ECB indeed demonstrated that CBs continue to be stuck between a very large rock and an even harder place as I've been saying now for some time. Some nods from Lagarde to PEPP/TLTRO but says December will be next times we might expect any action.. Our survey says....
As we continue to range remember that patience and discipline in trading are key as ever, and not being greedy.
GBPUSD: A solid rally with stops triggered through 1.3785 and 1.3800 with potentially those large options at 1.3820 in focus. Either way we held above then and after the 1.3863 highs to provide a springboard on the better risk tones to now test 1.3880-00 again as I type. Some good two-way action though still and I remain a rally seller while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always.
EURGBP: Supported now at 0.8520-30 after after breaking down through 0.8550 but rallies are weak amid firmerGBP/risk tones. GBPJPY: Support at 151.80-00 and breaking up through the decent resistance at 152.30 to test 152.50 and underpinning core pairs per my earlier tweet as risk sentiment firms. Sellers still poised when risk sentiment fades.
I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. These are risk sentiment markets and ever fickle so good/tight position management essential..
EURUSD: 1.1800 duly held yesterday's retreat/s helped by that decent option interest but still capping at 1.1850. A few options in play again too.
USDJPY: 110.00 has capped the latest rally this morning after a good hold of 109.60 support yesterday.
EURJPY: 129.60-70 held yesterday's retreat and now testing the pivotal 130.20-30 area amid the risk-off demand. Sellers poised though. USDCHF: Holding 0.9150 atm after failing into 0.9200 after EURUSD rallied from 1.1810 and with the SNB ever vigiliant and EURCHF steady. EURCHF: 1.0870 support now history amid some generally soggy EUR tones (compared to other ccys) but holding 1.0830 amid better risk tones and with SNB shadow ever present.
AUDUSD: A good hold of 0.7360 and now testing 0.7410 on the firmer risk/AUDJPY deman. Large options in play today at 0.7350 and 0.7400. USDCAD: A decent retreat from 1.2720 to 1.2620 but rally capping at 1.2660 amid the firmer oil/risk tones and hence the CADJPY demand.
Disturbing news from the world of cricket which sees India forfeiting the final Test due to COVID cases in the backroom staff but the next round of IPL games only a few days away. You make your own mind up but I think there might be a connection...
On a happier note brilliant to see Emma Radacanu in the final of the US tennis Open aged 18. Fearless composure notable in her Wimbledon run now achieving even greater heights. Come on Emma.!!!
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.33 BST