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  • Mike Paterson

All good for the Greenback still as month-end arrives

Friday 28 September 2018

Today sees the end of another month and it's the US Dollar still prevailing albeit perhaps as the best of a bad/confused bunch. Plenty of option contract expiry interest and month-end flows in the mix to make it a very interesting day ahead.

GBPUSD has now fallen further to 1.3061 just ahead of some key support into 1.3050 amid the general USD demand. Brexit, May and the Tories will continue to feature in the headlines as their party conference gets underway on Sunday. Sellers immediately around 1.3085 then 1.3100,1.3130 with more at 1.3150, 1.3180 and 1.3200. Strong demand into 1.3050 but expect some stop-loss selling the other side if broken. More bids between 1.3020-30, then 1.3000, 1.2980 and 1.2950. I remain a GBP rally seller.

I noted here yesterday that EURGBP was notably failing to rally despite the usual month-end Bundesbank demand and we duly failed above 0.8930 to fall back and test support around 0.8880-85 (GBPEUR resistance 1.1260). General Euro supply still playing out helped by the ongoing budget/political problems in Italy. Demand around 0.8880 then 0.8860, 0.8830 and 0.8800.Sellers now poised around 0.8910, 0.8920, 0.8935 then 0.8950 still.I remain a dip buyer with the clock ticking on the month-end Bundesbank demand but remain cautious given the lack of rebound.

EURUSD has fallen further to post 1.1615 this morning amid the general US$ demand, Euro supply and a plethora of option expiry interest at 1.1630, 1.1650, 1.1670 and 1.1700.Immediate bids now at 1.1600, 1,1580, 1.1550, 1.1520 and 1.1500 where more option expiries lurk today. Sellers poised around those option contract levels at 1.1650, 1.1670, 1.1700 then 1.1720 and 1.1750.

USDJPY has now broken clear of 113.00 and rallied further to take out the first of the barrier option defences at 113.50 to post 113.65 highs before retreating.Sell interest around 113.80 then more barrier option defence at 114.00. Bids building between 113.20-30 then 113.00, 112.80 with large option expiries at both levels then 112.50 still. USDCHF has also made solid gains again with some CHF/JPY selling notable before running into demand/support at 1.1580 helped by EURCHF selling at 1.1380 as I warned yesterday. Support now around 1.1320 then 1.1300 still. USDCHF bids now at 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9680 and 0.9660 with sell interest around 0.9780 and 0.9800.

AUDUSD has broken down through the support around 0.7220 and remains on the back foot but held up by the next layer of bids at 0.7200. Sellers now around 0.7230 then 0.7250  0.7280 and 0.7300 again with immediate demand at 0.7200 still then 0.7180. USDCAD has dropped back a little on slightly more positive NAFTA noises and steady/firmer oil prices.Sell interest building around 1.3060 still then 1.3080-1.3100 with buyers initially now at 1.3000 and the pivotal 1.2980.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing, so get your orders in to take full advantage of these moves. We're likely to see more volatility today amid the month-end flows.

Tomorrow the mighty Shrimpers of Southend United and I make the relatively short trip to Wycombe hoping to build on last week's much-needed win, but it's Le Golf National course just outside Paris that is currently grabbing my attention and will continue to over the weekend as the must-follow Ryder Cup plays out. Come on Europe !!!

Have a great week-end out there one and all.

Interbank Rate 08.30 BST GBPUSD   1.3070 EURUSD   1.1624 EURGBP   0.8895 GBPEUR   1.1242 USDJPY   113.47 USDCAD   1.3012 USDCHF   0.9755 GBPAUD   1.8113 GBPCAD   1.7003 GBPCHF   1.2747 GBPZAR   18.4697 GBPHKD   10.1332 EURHKD   9.0137


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