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  • Mike Paterson

Another reality check as some risk-off returns

Wednesday 20 May 2020

Yes folks in this ever fickle world of Forex we're seeing some risk-off sentiment again after the euphoria of the past couple of days that I warned was somewhat misguided. US-China relations becoming ever more tense and doubts cast on the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine have given markets/algos some renewed concerns


GBP had another positive day helped by some GBPJPY demand amid the risk-on sentiment and news from the BOJ that an emergency meeting will be held on Friday and we went up to look at 1.2300 before retreating helped this morning by some softer CPI. No shock on soggy data right now so finding support at the pivotal 1.2220 area for the moment. EURGBP held 0.8900 (GBPEUR 1.1235) again after failing around 0.8960 (1.1160) once more and since failed above 0.8950 which is also helping to support GBPUSD. Ranging still.GBPJPY enjoyed a good day on the better risk/BOJ meeting Yen supply but found sellers at 132.50 before then basing around 131.60 atm.


I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever but patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always.Caution still advised but sellers not getting shaken off just yet amid the Brexit/negative rates back-story.


USDJPY rallied to test 108.00 helped by the risk-on/BOJ meeting Yen selling only to fall back to post 107.63 oin the reality check. EURJPY held 117.30 after breaking up through 117.00 but failed into 118.20 on the softer risk sentiment and core pair supply.EURUSD failed into 1.0980 as a reality check ensued on the €500bl EU Recovery Fund and softer risk sentiment with EU hardliners Austria, Netherlands, Denmark & Sweden expected to publish a rival plan after 13.00 GMT today.USDCHF also ran out of puff as natural market forces tempered the previous day's rally assistance from the SNB as EURUSD rallied and with EURCHF in retreat again but finding support around 0.9680 for the moment.


AUDUSD failed at 0.6580 and has had a reality check of its own amid the ongoing Chinese retaliation measures/threats and softer risk plays but finding support at 0.6525-30 atm. USDCAD fell to 1.3870 only to rally to 1.3960 on firmer/risk and USD generally but has since retreated to 1.3920 amid firmer oil prices.


You don't need me to tell you that there's lots going on right now, and the foreseeable future, so don't forget to take advantage of my 1-2-1 mentoring sessions if there's areas of trading these volatile markets or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with.


Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.


Interbank rates:  08.43 BST

GBPUSD   1.2226

EURUSD   1.0941

EURGBP   0.8946

GBPEUR   1.1173

GBPAUD   1.8721

GBPCAD   1.7048

GBPJPY   131.60

GBPZAR   22.2034

GBPHKD   9.4788

USDJPY   107.65

USDZAR   18.1402

EURJPY   117.78

EURCHF   1.0602

EURHKD   8.4837

AUDUSD   0.6530

USDCAD   1.3944

USDCHF   0.9686


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