Another reality-check for the Pound
Wednesday 22 July 2020
The Euro has remained underpinned, albeit after an initial wobble, since the extended EU Summit finally got an agreement on the Recovery Fund for the full EUR 750bln (still to be ratifed by EU Parliament) and amid some strong EURGBP demand and softer risk tones/GBPJPY supply we've seen another retreat for the Pound across the board.
Talk continued yesterday that the recent big buyer was the SNB in a reserves portfolio re-shuffling and that helped keep a bid under GBP pairs initially but, as with any natural flow move, the impact leesens as the order gets filled and a more considered appraisal can resume with Brexit No-Deal and economic concerns top of the list.
COVID and US-China tensions continue to undermine market sentiment and we've seen generally softer tones to the Greenback which has also helped boost commodity currencies but some correction going on as I finish this report.Speeches from ECB's Lagarde and De Guindos in the mix today too.
GBPUSD continued its rally to post highs of 1.2768 helped by the EURGBP retreat to test strong support at 0.9000 but since been down to 1.2650 this morning as I type.EURGBP found good demand into 0.9000 as expected and bounced back quickly through amid the general Euro demand and now chewing through some decent resistance at 0.9100 as I type with support now building at 0.9050-60.GBPJPY failed at 136.40 and as risk appetite softened and core pairs found sellers again we've now seen a test of 135.40 after holding 135.80 for a while.
I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall as my preferred side and buy back in the dips as ever but patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always. I still expect to continue seeing some dip demand but cross-flows, risk sentiment and Brexit will continue to see a mixed bag as we've been witnessing.
USDJPY has retreated again but still can't get through 106.60-65, a level I higlighted again in a Tweet. EURJPY found support around 122.50 and has rallied steadily to post 123.37 this morning as core pairs both find dip demand. EURUSD found support into 1.1450 and since rallied to test 1.1550 albeit slipping back a little as I type but still underpinned for the moment. Large option expiry interest expected to support further retreats but lots of cross-pair flow in play too.USDCHF failed around 0.9400 this time where I noticed decent offers yesterday but supported now around 0.9320 as EURUSD retreats and with an underpinned EURCHF still with the SNB ever vigilant in the dips.
AUDUSD has made full use of the generally firmer risk tones/softer USD/commodity currency status combo and been up to 0.7168 before finally retreating to 0.7111. USDCAD capped at 1.3520 where I noted sell interest building yesterday and finally broke down through the 1.3480 support amid the softer USD/firmer oil price combo to test 1.3430 but rallying again as I type.
Markets are ever-fickle but good two-way pips to be had so don't forget to contact me if there's areas of these markets or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.40 BST