Another week, same playbook
Tuesday 19 April 2022
USD demand notable still overall, albeit off its highs as I type, with USDJPY heading ever upwards it would seem at the moment with the BOJ jawboning doing little, as expected, to stem the stide. Equities, gold and oil remain supported and looking underpinned still with commodity currencies feeling some love too. Meanwhile the atrocities in Ukraine sadly continue as we enter a new phase with tensions escalating further.
For new and older readers alike I repeat my view that it's still a case of not over-analysing but keeping your focus on price action in core and cross-pairs.Continue to identify ranges and what levels present value for money. Algos will continue to knee-jerk price action on the variable headlines. Discipline is key as ever.
GBPUSD: Another hold around 1.2970-80 amid some GBPJPY demand and EURGBP supply but sellers poised into 1.3050-60 then 1.3080 I remain a rally seller overall while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always. EURGBP: Still on the back foot overall but holding 0.8275-80 this time after last week's 0.8250-60 lows. I would still expect some more dip demand down here but equally sellers poised in the bounce. GBPJPY: Support at 166.50 now as the JPY supply continues and core pairs continue to find dip demand. Sellers not winning this battle at the moment.
EURUSD: A decent hold of 1.0750-60 again but failing into 1.0820 this time on the latest rally.USDJPY: Onwards n upwards and now a solid rally through 127.50-128.00 on what seems an inevitable journey to 130.00 and even further beyond some are saying but I'm not sure. EURJPY: Support at 138.00 now after and testing 138.75 this morning amid the ongoing JPY supply and core pair dip demand. USDCHF: Holding 0.9440 amid the USD demand with EURCHF up through 1.0200 with the SNB casting a shadow still. EURCHF: A solid rally from 1.0160 to 1.0230 this time with the SNB lurking in the dips. Rally sellers still poised though.
AUDUSD: A hold of 0.7340-50 and decent rally amid some commodity currency love but failing at 0.7400 so far. Option interest in play today/tomorrow. Should see good two-way business still so take your pick. NZDUSD holding 0.6720 after the break of 0.6760 but sellers lurking at 0.6800. USDCAD: 1.2570-80 providing a base again after another retreat from 1.2640 amid firmer oil prices for the moment. Two-way business still expected amid all the uncertainty. Some option interest in play too.
A welcome win for the mighty Shrimpers of Southend after a disappointing defeat on Friday. Just have to try and finish the season as strongly as possible to set the tone for next year.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.55 BST