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  • Mike Paterson

Another week, same uncertainty.

Monday 9 September 2019

Friday's US employment data came in some decent jobs growth albeit below expectations but wages were up too and gave the Greenback a decent undertone. Later US Fed Chairman Powell remained cautious but markets are still building in a 25bps cut on 18th September. Weekend Chinese data came in weaker than expected but markets expecting some additional liquidity, as ever, to negate the impact.


Meanwhile the Brexit/Johnson debacle continues to play out amid the usual smoke and mirrors and today sees another attempt to prevent No-Deal, and the possibility of a General Election still very much in the mix. Johnson visits the Irish PM so look out for some backstop news bombs. This morning's UK GDP data posted a surprise +0.3% with the key Services sector once again providing the good news.


GBPUSD has been down to test 1.2230 bids/pivot this morning before bouncing to test 1.2300 and we have good two-way still. EURGBP has been up to 0.9016 (GBPEUR down to 1.1091) this morning but now similarly back down to 0.8962 (GBPEUR up to 1.1160) on the GBP bounce.GBPJPY has also seen some good two-way action once again with session lows of 130.80 and currently testing highs of 131.70 helped by the better risk sentiment/stronger Pound combo.


I remain GBP bearish overall and will continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.Rinse and repeat.Still no reason to change my view any time soon. We have turmoil in the UK and once markets see through the smoke and mirrors the picture remains a very fragile one. Some caution required atm ofc.


EURUSD remains tightly bound around having failed at 1.1060 on Friday ahead of the decent sell interest at 1.1080 and fallen back only to hold around 1.1020. USDJPY found buyers into 106.60 and we've been up to post 107.02 helped by some better risk sentiment. Good sell interest at 107.25-30 should help cap rallies but the pair remains tightly bound for the moment into 106.80.USDCHF has been underpinned around 0.9860 helped by EURCHF demand up to 1.0930.


AUDUSD continues to find a few buyers above 0.6830 helped by some stronger domestic data offsetting the weaker numbers from China plus AUDJPY demand again but sellers poised into 0.6880 still. USDCAD had some fun n games on Friday amid the better US jobs report providing USD demand but then its own decent jobs and Ivey data giving C$ bulls a helping hand. Highs around 1.3240 in a rush soon gave way to test 1.3180 and then 1.3150-60 support and rallies into 1.3200 have capped there since helped by further CADJPY demand.


Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.


Don't forget I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of understanding this latest volatility that you might need some further help with.


Congrats to the Aussies in retaining The Ashes, cricket's greatest prize. Smith has been the main difference but their bowling attack has been impressive and highlighted the cracks in our batting technique/application. Playing for pride now and a 2-2 series draw come Thursday at The Oval.


Have a good day/week out there one and all.


Interbank Rate 08.45 BST

GBPUSD   1.2282

EURGBP   0.8981

EURUSD   1.1032

GBPEUR   1.1133

GBPAUD   1.7905

GBPCAD   1.6165

GBPJPY   131.32

GBPZAR   18.1860

GBPHKD   9.5284

USDJPY   106.94

USDZAR   14.7503

EURJPY   117.97

EURCHF   1.0921

EURHKD   8.5587

AUDUSD   0.6857

USDCAD   1.3165

USDCHF   0.9898


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