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  • Mike Paterson

Around and around we go again

Wednesday 20 April 2022

USD demand off its highs but with USDJPY heading back up after a shakeout from 129.40 to 128.05 amid more BOJ/governmnet jawboning but likelier a case of some profit-taking evident once 130.00 came into closer view after the recent stellar rally. BOJ have said they will continue with their fixed rate purchases of 10-year JGBs at 0.25% yield as they seek to defend their cap there but market not running too scared for now it would seem.

That round of USD supply helped to underpin other core pairs along with dip demand in JPY cross pairs but those core pairs continue to range with GBPUSD once again failing into 1.3050, where we have decent option interest tomorrow, and EURUSD failing into 1.0820-30 so far.

Equities remain supported in the dips but both gold and oil saw a shakedown yesterday after impressive rallies recently. Some support lurking for gold at $1920 then larger between $1880-00. Meanwhile the atrocities in Ukraine sadly continue as we enter a new phase with tensions escalating further.

GBPUSD: Yet another hold around 1.2980 amid some GBPJPY demand and EURGBP supply again but sellers poised into 1.3050-60 still. I remain a rally seller overall while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always. EURGBP: Holding 0.8280 this time and now looking to test 0.8320-25 offers. I would still expect some more dip demand down here but equally sellers poised in the bounce. GBPJPY: Support at 167.00 now as the general JPY supply returns after failing at 168.50 and core pairs continue to find dip demand.

EURUSD: A hold of 1.0780 yesterday but failing into 1.0820 again. Option interest in play again to help contain.

USDJPY: Finally saw a retracement as we tested 129.40-50 yesterday but some profit-taking giving it a decent shove back down to 128.05 as oveR-loaded longs at the higher levels ran for cover but uptrend still intact overall and now back up to 128.65

EURJPY: Support at 138.50 now after and testing 139.65 earlier amid the core pair dip demand. USDCHF: Holding 0.9480 and posting fresh highs of 0.9530 amid the general USD demand with EURCHF continuing its rally and up through 1.0250 with the SNB casting a shadow still. EURCHF: A solid rally from 1.0250 to 1.0290 this time with the SNB lurking in the dips. Rally sellers still poised though.

AUDUSD: A hold of 0.7360-80 and another decent rally amid the general USD supply led by USDJPY fall and now helped by the return of AUDJPY demand as USDJPY rallies of its lows. Should see good two-way business still so take your pick. NZDUSD holding 0.6720-30 still and heading upwards but sellers lurking at 0.6780-00. USDCAD: Testing the 1.2570 area again as I type after another retreat from 1.2640 and then 1.2620 amid firmer oil prices for the moment after yesterday's retreat. Two-way business still expected amid all the uncertainty.

As we look at trading opportunities it's even more important not to over analyze but trade the price action with discipline and patience. I can help with this in my 1-2-1 sessions and now is the time, more than ever, to get on board with those if you haven't already done so. Contact me to take advantage of currently reduced prices.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 08.11 BST

GBPUSD 1.3013

EURUSD 1.0808

EURGBP 0.8304

GBPEUR 1.2040

GBPJPY 167.24

GBPCAD 1.6357

GBPCHF 1.2360

GBPZAR 19.5780

GBPHKD 10.1426

USDJPY 128.57

EURJPY 138.96

EURCHF 1.0276

EURHKD 8.4243

AUDUSD 0.7420

USDCAD 1.2581

USDCHF 0.9506

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