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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Better risk sentiment prevailing but fragile times still

Wednesday 11 September 2019

9/11 - We must never forget

Firstly I wish to highlight the 18th anniversary of the tragedy that happened in 2001 and in which I lost some  trading friends at Cantor Fitzgerald. Mercifully two others were not able to turn up for work that day due to baby-care duties and one left the company a short while prior. Such fine lines decide our fate. The awful and cowardly act that killed 2996, and which we remember today and always, puts trading angst, and life, in true perspective.

Reports yesterday that China has offered to buy American products in exchange for a delay in a series of US tariffs and easing of a supply ban against Huawei has seen some better risk tones and some Yen and Swiss Franc selling again. Nothing too new in the reports and all part of the US-China trade talk smoke and mirrors but in these highly fractious markets it's been enough for the algos and traders to react. The global uncertainty remains though still as we wait on the ECB tomorrow and US Fed on the 18th with Brexit and other considerations all in play.

GBPUSD has continued to range with yesterday's large option expiry interest that I tweeted helping to hold 1.2300 but similarly the offers at 1.2380-00 capping rallies too and we have good two-way business still.EURGBP remains range bound too but on the back foot with EURUSD lagging behind GBPUSD ahead of the expected dovish ECB meet tomorrow with rate cuts expected plus extended QE and we've now fallen to 0.8920 (GBPEUR up to 1.1205).GBPJPY has also seen some good two-way action once again and now holding 132.50 to post 133.38 but continues to see a stronger bias as USDJPY rises to post 107.85 amid that better risk sentiment.

I remain GBP bearish overall and will continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.Rinse and repeat.Still no reason to change my view any time soon. Some caution required atm ofc with the algos ever-poised for news bombs.

EURUSD remains tightly bound around having failed around 1.1060 again ahead of the decent sell interest at 1.1080 and ECB decisions tomorrow and fallen back this morning to post 1.1023 this morning helped by some German growth forecast downgrades per my tweet. I prefer to sell Euro rallies but happy to buy back in the dips as we continue to range.USDJPY broke up through 107.50 on the better risk sentiment but has failed at 107.85 so far. USDCHF remains underpinned, now around 0.9900 helped by the renewed risk-on CHF supply.

AUDUSD continues to find a few buyers above 0.6830 helped by AUDJPY demand again but has sellers still poised.

USDCAD tested 1.3200 again only to retreat to 1.3138 helped by some CADJPY better-risk demand but remains range bound.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

Don't forget I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of understanding these current moves that you might need some further help with.

Have a good day out there one and all.

Interbank Rate 08.30 BST

GBPUSD   1.2357

EURGBP   0.8932

EURUSD   1.1039

GBPEUR   1.1194

GBPAUD   1.7990

GBPCAD   1.6253

GBPJPY   133.15

GBPZAR   18.1647

GBPHKD   9.5804

USDJPY   107.75

USDZAR   14.7019

EURJPY   118.96

EURCHF   1.0959

EURHKD   8.5585

AUDUSD   0.6869

USDCAD   1.3152

USDCHF   0.9927

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