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BOE leaves rates on hold. Greenback softer as US Election unfolds further

Thursday 5 November 2020

The Bank of England yesterday brought today's decision forward to 07.00 GMT from 12.00 GMT and have announced no change in interest rates but an increase in QE of £150bln to £895bln.


There had been talk doing the rounds of negative rates last night and that had given GBP a shove lower but we've seen some buying since the announcement with interest rates staying on hold.A press conference will be held shortly but embargoed until 09.15 GMT. Here's the full BOE statement that I tweeted earlier: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2020/november-2020


Across the pond it hangs in the balance and by no means certain still, and Trump is threatening legal action anyhow. The uncertainty and potential lack of additional monetary stimulus is helping to put the Greenback on the back foot. US Federal Reserve FOMC announcement in the mix too at 19.00 GMT and I will try to send a preview later if time/trading allows.


COVID continues to cast its ugly shadow with rising cases still and England going into a month's lockdown, at least, from today.


GBPUSD has now posted highs of 1.3042 since the BOE announcement having tested 1.2930 support last night amid the negative rates talk and 1.2940 earlier this morning prior to the actual announcement. A relief rally of sorts but with the presser still to come. EURGBP ralied further through yesterday and peaked at 0.9072 on the general GBP supply late on but has this morning fallen in a hurry and tested 0.9000 again post-BOE but up again now at 0.9035. I remain a dip buyer overall while respecting the current two-way business still.GBPJPY capped at 136.20 but holding 135.00 on the core pair retreat before now posting 135.90 as risk firms along with GBP post-BOE.


No change in my basic view and I stay poised to sell GBP rallies as my preferred side and buy back in the dips as ever. Patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always. I still see dip demand though with markets and risk sentiment still in a state of uncertainty overall.Brexit remains the very big elephant in the room and the negative impact of COVID still undermining.


USDJPY has fallen back amid the softer USD tones/Election unknowns but holding 104.20 on the latest retreat. EURJPY has been up n down between 122.00-123.00 again amid all the uncertainties and still providing good two-way pips. EURUSD has continued to make steady progress to 1.1770 again on the softer USD tones after a good hold of 1.1630-50 yesterday. USDCHF capped at 0.9160 as EURUSD rallied with EURCHF steady and now below 0.9100 but SNB casting its shadow still.


AUDUSD has seen another solid rally to test that good supply at 0.7220-25 again on the softer USD but capping for the moment albeit still underpinned. USDCAD capped at 1.3200 as USD sentiment turned lower and oil price firmed a little but holding 1.3100 again so far in the subsequent retreat.


Markets are ever-fickle so don't forget to contact me if there's areas that you might need some further help with.


Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.


Interbank rates:  08.45 GMT

GBPUSD   1.3012

EURUSD   1.1758

EURGBP   0.9035

GBPEUR   1.1067

GBPAUD   1.8085

GBPCAD   1.7078

GBPJPY   135.75

GBPZAR   20.6240

GBPHKD   10.0856

USDJPY   104.36

USDZAR   15.8667

EURJPY   122.53

EURCHF   1.0690

EURHKD   9.1132

AUDUSD   0.7187

USDCAD   1.3130

USDCHF   0.9106


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