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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Busy week ahead

Monday 6 March 2023

Friday's US ISM Services data didn't come in as much of a strong surprise as last month but was still a positive beat and we saw some USD demand in the immediate aftermath.The Greenback jury remains out though as US bond yields then retreated a little and some USD supply returned. It looks underpinned but ranging still overall as the second-guessing continues. RBA decision tonight (25bps expected), BOC on Wednesday, BOJ and US NFP data on Friday. Meanwhile US Fed Chairman Powell gives his semi-annual testimony to Senate and Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Equities have seen another decent rally but a little stuck as I type amid the fickle market sentiment while WTI is strongly off its $76.00 Friday lows and now finding $79.00 support but equally failing into $80.00 so far. Gold has found support at $1840 now but equally capping into $1860 as the tight ranges continue amid the global uncertainty. Ukraine/Russia war continues to be the main geo-political elephant in the room.

GBPUSD: A decent hold of 1.1950-60 area on Friday but now capping into 1.2050-60 where we have large option contract interest today. Support coming in at the old 1.2020 resistance line. I remain a rally seller but caution still required at these lower levels.EURGBP: Holding 0.8820 in Friday's extended retreat having capped at 0.8855 this time. Expect some more two-way trading as core pairs fluctuate. Keep in mind the potential impact from the large GBPUSD options. GBPJPY: A support line forming at 163.00-20 still but sellers poised into 164.00 as the uncertainty/fickle sentiment continues.

EURUSD: Holding 1.0590-00 on Friday and rallying on the softer USD tones but capping into 1.0660 so far. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side still.USDJPY: Capping around 136.40-50 on Friday as some USD supply returned but holding 135.40 in the dip so far.

Plenty more to read in my full report and more detailed update for traders plus my 1-2-1 mentoring sessions. Mail for more info.

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