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  • Mike Paterson

Crisis ? What crisis?

Friday 30 September 2022

A decent recovery for the Pound as another week closes with shorts still running for the exit doors after the BOE stepped in to prop up the gilt market on Wednesday.This morning's Q2 GDP data was revised up to 0.2% from -0.1% and also provided some cheer but the detail behind the headline is not so great. The rally certainly hasn't been one-way traffic but it's been suitably impressive while markets and traders run around like headless chickens still. UK govt meets the OBR today in a bid to further calm the markets.


Risk sentiment generally has also had another roller-coaster ride with equities lower, higher then lower and now higher again, as has been oil and gold price moves. Month-end flows are still inconclusive given I said we had mixed signals but USDCAD and USDJPY (touted to be the biggest movers) have both found good dip demand despite the general USD supply prevailing elsewhere. It's the end of Q3 and the tidying up everwhere has been messy to say th least. Today Putin speaks as US trading gets underway and we have another piece of the US PCE data.


GBPUSD: Currently up to 1.1230 as I type but blink and you miss it still as moves remain volatile. Patience definitely a virtue again but I prefer rally-sell side still as and when momentum finally fades. Cross flows still having a big impact too. EURGBP: Strong Pound conquering all for the moment. Solid retreat now testing 0.8750 since the strong 0.8850 support broke. GBPJPY: Solid rally from 156.00 to 161.80 as I type, seemingly impervious to wobbly risk sentiment tones along the way.


EURUSD: Solid rally from 0.9700 amid some softer USD tones yesterday but failing at 0.9850 this morning . Large option interest nearby today. Cross and month-end flows, Ukraine and ECB conjecture all in the frame still quite apart from USD flows. USDJPY: Capping around 144.80 yet again and general USD retreat to test 144.20 this time after a decent hold of 144.00. Rinse n repeat. EURJPY: Underpinned at 141.00 now despite some wobbly risk tones along the way but sellers prevailing at 142.30 amid all the variables as core pairs retreat. USDCHF: Holding 0.9750 still in the general USD retreat after capping above 0.9850 again. EURCHF underpinned with SNB keeping an eye on matters still.EURCHF: A decent rally in the EUR generally (except vs the rampant Pound) and a good base now at 0.9550 with SNB still casting its shadow.


AUDUSD: Also staging a decent rally amid the general USD supply but capping at 0.6520-30 again before retreating to 0.6500 as I type. Good two-way pips whatever your bias. NZDUSD capped into 0.5750 again after its own impressive rally but holding 0.5700 in latest retreats. USDCAD: Decent support coming at 1.3650 in the past 24 hours yesterday but capping 1.3750 again amid the variable oil and USD tones.


Let's continue to be careful out there.

Interbank rates: 08.53 BST

GBPUSD 1.1173

EURUSD 0.9838

EURGBP 0.8802

GBPEUR 1.1358

GBPCAD 1.5283

GBPCHF 1.0900

GBPZAR 20.0200

GBPHKD 8.7092

GBPJPY 161.42

USDJPY 144.31

EURJPY 142.05

EURHKD 7.6665

EURCHF 0.9615

AUDUSD 0.6509

NZDUSD 0.5728

USDCAD 1.3665

USDCHF 0.9766



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