• Mike Paterson

Euro in retreat again amid some risk-off plays

Friday 24 April 2020

The Eurozone continues its infighting between North and South and the failure to reach definite conclusions/agreements continues to undermine the Euro.

Elsewhere we're seeing some on-going range trading as per my tweets as risk sentiment remains fragile amid all the uncertainty and dismal outlook ahead and some equity market softness despite some decent recovery in oil prices since yesterday before capping again this morning.

GBPUSD capped at 1.2415 after a late European rally as USD fell across the board. Re-sells duly made at 1.2400-05 as per my tweet at the time and we've retreated into the strong 1.2300 support line this morning. EURGBP has continued its retreat amid the generally weaker Euro and that's helped underpin Cable but holding 0.8700 (1.1495) having broken down through 0.8750. GBPJPY is holding in a 132.50-133.60 range atm still amid the uncertainty.

I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever but patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always.

USDJPY still trading tightly and holding 107.30 again after the latest BOJ measures but finding sellers into 108.00 amid the variable risk and USD sentiment .Rinse n repeat. EURJPY has fallen further on the softer Euro/risk sentiment and now posted 115.54 after capping at 116.80. EUR 1.1bln in expiries today at 115.60-65 as per my earlier tweet and should help provide some support and on core pairs too. EURUSD tested 1.0750 support yesterday but those large expiries duly played out and we saw a post-expiry rally to look at 1.0850 amid the softer USD. Failure of the Eurogroup/Eurozone to reach any recovery fund agreement continues to undermine though and we've now been back down to test the 1.0730 support this morning. USDCHF found dip buyers again  but this time at 0.9700 and we've back up to look at 0.9800 with EURUSD falling and EURCHF still holding the line at 1.0500 and the SNB still lurking.

AUDUSD has based at 0.6325 again and rallied once more to post 0.6406 on yesterday's late-European USD supply and re-sells duly placed. Large expiries today at 0.6435 and 0.6450 possibly in play and targeted but sell side exprected to prevail.USDCAD has finally fallen back through 1.4115 and tested 1.4000 as oil prices recovered but since testing 1.4115 again as oil retreats again this morning. Good two-way business still expected but discipline required as ever.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things as ever. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Make sure you get some rest over the week-end too.

Interbank rates: 07.56 BST

GBPUSD   1.2324

EURUSD   1.0748

EURGBP   0.8718

GBPEUR   1.1468

GBPAUD   1.9408

GBPCAD   1.7365

GBPJPY   132.69

GBPZAR   23.4530

GBPHKD   9.5548

USDJPY   107.67

USDZAR   19.0531

EURJPY   115.68

EURCHF   1.0516

EURHKD   8.3317

AUDUSD   0.6350

USDCAD   1.4086

USDCHF   0.9786

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