Euro under pressure still
Monday 29 March 2021
Normal service now resumed after being away from my desk for a few days and the Euro is still under pressure and starting the week with further falls amid the vaccine roll-out debacle.
Latest month-end flow anaylsis now points to a moderate USD sell from mixed signals but some USDJPY demand notable still. Today's 4pm London fiox sees the month-end Spot settlement action so be aware. Given the month-end need to sell JPY still we might reasonably expect EURJPY, GBPJPY and other JPY crosses to move higher but we still can't rule out some last-minute Year-end JPY demand from Japanese corps to help counter.
GBPUSD: Still underpinned after that good hold of 1.3670 last week and now posting new recent highs of 1.3832 as EURGBP falls through the strong 0.8530-35 support line.EURGBP now through 0.8530 and posting 1-year lows of 0.8515 amid the vaccine rollout-led divergence between the EU and UK.GBPJPY has seen a good hold of 150.50 to test 151.65 in this morning's spike but rally sellers poised still.
EURUSD is still in retreat but finding support at 1.1760 for the moment while USDJPY duly capped at the 109.85 sell interest but equally demand/support around 109.35 up from previous 109.20 lows as the month-end JPY supply continues.EURJP finds itself caught between the EUR and JPY supply in a tight range of 128.50-129.30.USDCHF making good progress higher to 0.9420 as EURUSD falls capped and falling a little with EURCHF retreating to 1.1035 from 1.1080.
AUDUSD: Another pair underpinned by some JPY supply with AUDJPY demand supporting the core pair but sellers poised still. Currently trading 0.7600-0.7700.USDCAD reamins tightly bound still with a base now at 1.2560 but 1.2630 resistance amid the variable USD/Oil tones.
A great win for the mighty Shrimpers on Saturday and we will keep believing but it's not entirely within our control still.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a good week everyone.
Interbank rates: 09.30 GMT