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  • Mike Paterson

Euro weakness notable as month-end approaches

Some more noises from the ECB re concerns on Euro strength and expected month-end USD demand have helped to keep a lid on Euro rallies and we've seen notable weakness across the board. Keep an eye on today's 15.00 GMT London fix for the first of the month/quarter-end ones with the 30th being today's Spot date.


The Pound is off Friday's lows and making some strong gains this morning but remains vulnerable overall with more Brexit trade talks this week even though there's seemingly some positive tones starting to creep out. Market risk sentiment in Europe is a little more positive as equities open higher but it's all still very fragile out there as we begin what promises to be a lively and interesting week.


GBPUSD held 1.2680 again on Friday and now posting 1.2835 as I type amid some better risk sentiment and EURGBP retreating further through 0.9080. EURGBP has capped at 0.9120 this morning and found itself in steady retreat to 0.9060 as I type amid the general Euro softness and that fall is helping to underpin GBPUSD. Usual month-end demand in play now but the overall EUR supply should temper gains.GBPJPY found support at 134.00 and 134.40 as risk sentiment turned more positive and core pairs find decent dip demand and now testing 135.00 as I type.


I stay poised to sell GBP rallies as my preferred side and buy back in the dips as ever.  Patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always. I still see dip demand though with markets still in a state of uncertainty overall.


USDJPY remains underpinned for the moment as risk remains a little more positive but sellers still poised and helping to cap at 105.70 now. EURJPY found support at 122.30 amid the general JPY supply and dip demand on core pairs but remains vulnerable to EUR-negative flows into month/quarter end.EURUSD ran into decent demand at 1.1610 before rallying but sellers remain poised. USDCHF capped at 0.9300 and retreated as EURUSD rallies off its lows but also EURCHF retreats on the general EUR soft tones but will be underpinned still by SNB.


AUDUSD found support at 0.7000 on Friday ahead of large option expiries there today and has tested 0.7065 helped by some AUDJPY demand but rally sellers remain poised. USDCAD capped above 1.3400 again amid the generally softer Greenback, firmer oil/risk combo with CADJPY demand/supply helping to provide some 2-way business still.


Markets are ever-fickle so don't forget to contact me if there's areas that you might need some further help with.


Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.


Interbank rates:  08.50 BST

GBPUSD   1.2793

EURUSD   1.1629

EURGBP   0.9086

GBPEUR   1.1003

GBPAUD   1.8167

GBPCAD   1.7140

GBPJPY   134.83

GBPZAR   22.0207

GBPHKD   9.9471

USDJPY   105.35

USDZAR   17.1647

EURJPY   122.52

EURCHF   1.0798

EURHKD   9.0347

AUDUSD   0.7046

USDCAD   1.3393

USDCHF   0.9285


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