Euro weakness notable as the new week gets underway
Monday 12 August 2019
Some better risk sentiment on the European opening has seen a slide in the Euro as fundamentals ( dovish ECB,weak EZ data) dominate over Yuan diversification again. All still a very mixed bag out there though and markets remain dancing on hot coals.
GBPUSD had an awful day on Friday amid soggy Q2 GDP data, risk sentiment, Brexit uncertainty and the ongoing political fallout and we've been down further to 1.2015 in Asia with EURGBP rising to highs of 0.9325 (GBPEUR down to 1.0723) not seen since Oct 2016. In the last hour it's all kicked off again amid the Euro tumble which as seen EURGBP back down to 0.9250 (GBPEUR up to 1.0810) and GBPUSD therefore boosted to post 1.2069.
EURGBP duly kept going higher on Friday as I warned if 0.9250 broke and posted those 0.9325 highs but has retreated amid the general EUR supply this morning although dip buyers around 0.9250 (GBPEUR sellers 1.0800-10) remain poised. GBPJPY fell again as I warned but has held 126.50 so far.
I remain GBP bearish overall and will continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.No reason to change my view any time soon. Yes folks, the same paragraph will be inserted here for a while yet!
USDJPY has been down to post 105.28 on Friday and 105.31 this morning having broken down, and held below 105.80, amid the overall fragile risk sentiment and breaking through 105.50 support along the way. Large option expiry interest today at 105.50 should help contain but the pair looks soggy still and I continue to prefer the rally-sell/buy Yen strategy. USDCHF remains tightly bound but on the back foot still with EURCHF falling amid the general CHF demand and EUR supply but with the SNB ever watchful.
EURUSD failed above 1.1200 again and has been down to take out the 1.1175-80 bids/support to post lows of 1.1162 amid the general EUR supply.
AUDUSD failed at 0.6800 helped by AUDJPY supply again, plus a little Gold retreat from recent highs, to test 0.6760 but remains tightly bound. USDCAD duly found support below 1.3200 helped by some CADJPY supply and softer oil prices but a very large option expiry at 1.3250 today casts a big shadow.
Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.
Don't forget I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading this latest volatility that you need further help with.
The least said the better about Saturday's dismal display from the currently not so mighty Shrimpers in losing 1-3. Hey ho, life is never dull supporting them!
Have a good day/week out there one and all.
Interbank Rate 08.35 BST