Firmer risk sentiment as another week opens
Monday 14 June 2021
Equities, commodities and cryptos on the rise again and some better risk tones greet the new week but we're not seeing too much by way of JPY and CHF supply, albeit we are seeing USD demand with EUR now finding a few dip buyers again.
Later today UK PM Johnson announces the latest lockdown easing rules but a delay of up to 4 weeks expected across most sectors at this stage amid concerns of virus variant increases despite the encouraging vaccination programme being rolled out. On Wednesday we hear the latest policy decision from the US Federal Reserve and that will cast a shadow over markets in the meantime.
Jury on the Greenback and risk sentiment still out so,as always in these fickle times, ignore the noise and be careful with your trading as we continue to range tightly. Pick your preferred entry/exit levels and don't be greedy or over-analyze. Patience and discipline are key too of course. Let the algos do the work around CBs, data releases and headlines and take advantage of that as suits your interest. Trying to predict ahead of the event rarely works well.
GBPUSD: Another test of 1.4080 as I type and some more pips banked after a failure to break back up through 1.4120 amid some general GBP weakness/lockdown easing uncertainty. I remain a rally seller but respecting the dip demand/range trading.EURGBP: Underpinned still at 0.8580 and now looking at 0.8600 again helping to cap GBPUSD. Range trading still.
GBPJPY: Testing 154.50 as I type in the latest retreat having capped at 155.20 then 155.00
I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but still not getting over greedy with expectation on the retreats.
EURUSD: A good cap now at 1.2140-50 but holding 1.2080 so far.USDJPY: Holding 109.30 again on Friday but capping around 109.80 still as we continue to range tightly. EURJPY: 133.00-20 now providing a decent cap. Jury still out on risk plays.USDCHF: Holding 0.8960 this time in its latest retreat with EURCHF holding 1.0860 but with CHF still finding demand overall and with the SNB ever vigilant.EURCHF: Holding 1.0860 and now boucing with SNB shadow ever present
AUDUSD: Yet more options interest around 0.7750 today after 0.7780 capping but 0.7680 holding again.USDCAD: Holding 1.2080 one again on Friday helped by that large option interest as I warned but capping into 1.2180 helped by firmer oil tones and aome CADJPY demand.
At least one England team did us proud yesterday.....
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a good week everyone.
Interbank rates: 08.15 BST