Firmer risk, softer Greenback prevailing again
Wednesday 5 August 2020
After some good two-way business yesterday we've now seen steady USD declines amid some firmer risk sentiment as the happy-clappy brigade take over again and the Gold/Silver march higher continues at pace.
I will repeat what I typed yesterday. "COVID continues to cast its resurgence shadow but equities and commodities don't care as investors revel in the ultra-cheap money swashing around still and expected even further if further COVID lockdowns return. Strange times indeed but once again we need to analyze less and just go with the flow. As always, picking value-for-money levels to enter/exit trades is crucial, and don't get greedy."
Also a reminder, if you needed one, that tomorrow brings the latest BOE MPC decision but at the much earlier time of 06.00 GMT with a presser at 07.30 GMT that will be released at 09.00 GMT. I will be up in time to cover the announcement/fallout and will attempt to provide any order board info that I can glean prior. I will in any case send a mail later today with some further thoughts on what might prevail.
GBPUSD broke down through 1.3000 support to post lows of 1.2981 but since rallied again and eventually broke above the pivotal 1.3060 area (where it also found a base again) per my tweet to take out the 1.3080 and 1.3100 offers and now post highs of 1.3122 so far this morning. We've seen a test of 1.3060 though since then with a sharp fall into the UK Sergices PMI data this morning which in the end came in around expectations and now the pair is testing 1.3100 again. Keep up at the back! EURGBP has found support at 0.9000 and now broken up through 0.9020 to post 0.9040. GBPJPY continued to retreat after that 139.00 cap but once again found support at the 137.80 support/pivot to bounce on the firmer risk tones this morning and test 138.60.
I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall as my preferred side and buy back in the dips as ever.Patience will continue to be a virtue and entry level key as always. I still expect to continue seeing dip demand though amid the generally softer USD tones atm.
Elsewhere USDJPY continues to find support at 105.50 but equally sellers into 106.00 while EURUSD has buyers now at 1.1800 after holding 1.1725 yesterday and this morning posting highs of 1.1843. USDCHF has retreated to test 0.9100 amid the EURUSD rally with EURCHF ranging still.
AUDUSD has enjoyed the softer USD/firmer Gold tones and now testing 0.7200 again while USDCAD has once again found itself on the back foot on the softer USD/firmer oil combo to posted fresh recent lows of 1.3265 after capping at 1.3420.
Markets are ever-fickle so don't forget to contact me if there's areas of trading these markets that you might need some further help with.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.23 BST