Firmer risk tones prevailing.
Wednesday 23 June 2021
Early report today as I have to head out for a few hours.
Firmer risk sentiment and JPY selling still very notable and the correction of last week's moves continues as equities and oil rally and Bitcoin finds support below 30k. Preliminary PMIs the data focus today.
BOE tomorrow casts a small shadow over GBP but expectations for any change in tone are not high. We can expect cautious rhetoric on inflation and economic recovery with some economists/analysts calling for a £50bln reduction in QE and rate hike by end of year. Are the CB's listening though? Fed's slight shift may allow BOE some room but unlikley to be in any rush.
USD and risk sentiment remains variable meanwhile and patience and discipline are key of course and not being greedy, as ever. I hope you're making the most of these good moves whatever your bias.
GBPUSD: A further rally to 1.3960 and holding 1.3920 on the retreat so far. I remain a rally seller but still expecting dip demand. Keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always.EURGBP: Another good hold of 0.8540-50 this time again but rallies weak as GBPJPY demand continues.
GBPJPY: Another strong rally on the firmer risk sentiment and now testing 154.60 as I type.Decent support line now forming at 154.20
I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as the new week reveals itself. Risk to the downside though still overall.
EURUSD: Finding support at 1.1880 but equally capped this time at 1.1950 as cross plays still impact and USD remains firm. USDJPY: Finding support now at 110.60 after yesterday's hold of 110.50 but rally sellers now poised between 110.80-00 including me.EURJPY: 131.20 forming a good base as I highlighted here yesterday and a decent rally but sellers poised now between 132.30-60 again.USDCHF: Undepinned at 0.9180 again as EURUSD caps with the SNB ever vigilant but sellers at 0.9215-20 now.EURCHF: Holding 1.0950 now amid the firmer risk tones and with SNB shadow/help ever present but sellers poised into 1.0980 and the key 1.1000 area still.
AUDUSD: Finding sellers like me between 0.7550-60 still but 0.7500 and 0.7720 now decent support.Large options interest in play tomorrow at current levels.USDCAD: A further retreat from 1.2400 amid firmer oil prices with some analsts looking for $100 by year end but a strong support line/ bids now at 1.2300.CADJPY demand also notable still.
As we look at trading opportunities it's even more important not to over analyze but trade the price action with discipline and patience. I can help with this in my 1-2-1 sessions and now is the time, more than ever, to get on board with those if you haven't already done so.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 06.45 BST