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  • Mike Paterson

FOMC in focus

Wednesday 16 March 2022

Sad times in Ukraine still remain the market's prime mover but this evening sees the eagerly awaited latest rate/policy decision from the US Federal Reserve. Ezpectations nailed on for a 0.25% hike but a 0.5% move can not be ruled out. Attention will be paid to the overall tightening policy in any case amid ramapaging inflation. Tomorrow sees the BOE take their turn to try and make sense of it all. As always, let the algos do the heavy work and stand by to respond or place wish-list orders prior.

The Greenback remains underpinned while European equity markets sre on the rise again after yesterday's wobble.

Gold and oil are off their lows while FX pairs continue their fragile range trading price action but underpinned by the return of some JPY and CHF supply through the crosses amid the better risk tones.

GBPUSD: Finding a base now at 1.3020 after yesterday's spike to 1.3090. I remain a rally seller overall while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always. EURGBP: Decent support at 0.8400 again after a retreat to 0.8380 after failing above 0.8450. More two-way business expected with BOE lurking tomorrow.GBPJPY: Retreating from 154.60 but supported at 154.20 helped by the better risk tones while the jury remains out.

EURUSD: Holding 1.0960 again after yesterday's drop to 1.0920 and now testing 1.1000-20 again as I type.

USDJPY: 118.0 currently supporting after capping into 118.50 again and some pips banked. Expecting some year-end JPY repatriation still. EURJPY: Support now at 129.60 with failure into 130.20 so far in these ever fickle times. USDCHF: Now holding 0.9390 in the latest retreat after testing 0.9430 with EURCHF support again after a hold of 1.0260 with SNB shadow lurking amid the fragile backdrop. EURCHF: Support at 1.0300 again with SNB lurking in the dips. Rally sellers poised still though.

AUDUSD: Holding 0.7200 in the latest retreat and testing 0.7230 amid the better risk tones and some return of commodity-ccy demand. USDCAD: Holding 1.2720 so far after the steady retreat amid the firmer oil/CADJPY demand double whammy. Two-way business expected amid all the uncertainty still.Caution required though with so many variables. Options in play again today.

Disappointing display last night from the mighty Shrimpers in finally ending the recent 13 match unbeaten run but we go again on Saturday to get back on track.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 08.00 GMT

GBPUSD 1.3041

EURUSD 1.0962

EURGBP 0.8405

GBPEUR 1.1896

GBPJPY 154.34

GBPCAD 1.6640

GBPCHF 1.2276

GBPZAR 19.6935

GBPHKD 10.1660

USDJPY 118.36

EURJPY 129.74

EURCHF 1.0313

EURHKD 8.5429

AUDUSD 0.7217

USDCAD 1.2750

USDCHF 0.9408

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