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  • Mike Paterson

Forex pairs making their minds up still

Friday 25 March 2022

Another week draws to a close with the Ukraine war still sadly raging to retain everyone's focus and markets have once again been running around in circles meanwhile. Equity markets, Gold and oil are finding dip support still albeit now off their highs again amid US tresuries still struggling while FX pairs continue with their fragile/fickle price action but the USDJPY rally extended to 122.43 before some BOJ jawboning saw some sharp retracement to 121.20 before finding the usual dip demand. Commodity currencies feeling some love still.

For new and older subscribers alike I repeat my view that it's still a case of not over-analysing but keeping your focus on price action in core and cross-pairs. I can't tell you what's going to happen next, nor can you, but continue to identify ranges and what levels present value for money. Algos will continue to knee-jerk price action on the variable headlines. Discipline is key in these whippy markets. If in doubt, stay out or at the very least keep positions trimmed/manageable.

GBPUSD: Duly found a base at 1.3150 where we also had that decent option interest but failing at 1.3225 and now retreating. EURGBP: Decent base now at 0.8335-40 and testing 0.8360 area again and helping to cap GBPUSD once more. More two-way business expected.GBPJPY: Finding support at 160.00-20 again in latest retreat after failure at 161.50 amid the BOJ jawboning

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs overall as my preferred trading side but being patient as ever.

EURUSD: Holding 1.0990-00 now but rally has failed above 1.1030 so far.USDJPY: Fresh 6 year highs of 122.43 but then the extended BOJ-led retreat to 121.18.EURJPY: Support now at 133.60 after failure at 134.80 then 134.40 so far as core pairs find rally sellers and helped by BOJ comments. USDCHF: Capping at 0.9320 now but holding 0.9260 in the latest retreat as EURCHF remains under pressure but with SNB shadow lurking amid the fragile backdrop. General CHF demand still notable as I've been warning. EURCHF: Support/bids at 1.0230 now broken but holding 1.0200 for the moment with SNB lurking in the dips but equally rally sellers poised still though as I've been warning.

AUDUSD: Testing 0.7535 offers after the rally above 0.7500 yesterday amid the return of some commodity-ccy demand. USDCAD: Holding 1.2525-30 as we continue to range with sellers poised now at 1.2560-80 amid firmer oil prioe and commodity ccy demand generally. Two-way business expected amid all the uncertainty still.

As we look at trading opportunities it's even more important not to over analyze but trade the price action with discipline and patience. I can help with this in my 1-2-1 sessions and now is the time, more than ever, to get on board with those if you haven't already done so. Contact me to take advantage of currently reduced prices.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.Have a good weekend everyone.

Interbank rates: 07.17 GMT

GBPUSD 1.3195

EURUSD 1.1025

EURGBP 0.8355

GBPEUR 1.1967

GBPJPY 160.68

GBPCAD 1.6547

GBPCHF 1.2203

GBPZAR 19.1437

GBPHKD 10.2789

USDJPY 121.76

EURJPY 134.26

EURCHF 1.0221

EURHKD 8.5894

AUDUSD 0.7505

USDCAD 1.2540

USDCHF 0.9270

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