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  • Mike Paterson

Forex pairs ranging still

Wednesday 4 August 2021

Variable risk sentiment amid variable US bond yields and after another wobble yesterday we've seen calmer waters since as yields, equities and oil all find a firmer tone. JPY and CHF supply notable as European trading gets underway and there's also that interesting options interest rolling off this week to keep an eye on.

The Pound is finding some support again helped by the current GBPJPY demand and EURGBP supply with the latest BOE MPC decision looming tomorrow. No great change expected from them but we never say never eh? Services PMI data just out beat the flash forecasts but the subtext not so strong.

Patience and discipline in trading are key as ever and not being greedy as we continue to range tightly overall. Still some good two-way pips to be had as the jury remains out so picking your moments and levels are more important than ever.

GBPUSD: 1.3870-80 still providing a decent base in the retreats and pips banked again per my tweets but 1.3930-50 area still proving to be a decent top as I type amid the variable risk tones at the moment. I remain a rally seller overall while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always. EURGBP: Capped at 0.8550 yet again and looking to test 0.8510 amid some EUR supply as I type which is helping to underpin GBPUSD. GBPJPY: That old line at 152.20 still providing good resistance after holding 151.20 and also helping to support GBPUSD.

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. These are risk sentiment markets and ever fickle so good/tight position management essential.

EURUSD: 1.1850 support now being broken as I type amid some general USD demand but the large option interest at 1.1850 this week, including today again still in play.General EUR supply elsewhere with cross flows very much making an impact still.USDJPY: 109.30 now providing a good cap after the solid hold of 108.80-85 as we continue to range tightly. USDCHF: Challenging 0.9060 as I type amid firmer USD tones after holding 0.9020 with the SNB always keeping an eye on matters. EURCHF: 1.0740 broke down amid the generally softer EUR tone and CHF demand yesterday but still some dip demand lurking with SNB shadow ever present but sellers still poised. 1.0720-30 the current support line.

AUDUSD: The round trip back to 0.7360 from 0.7407 post-RBA duly completed as I anticipated yesterday and pips banked in the retreat. Some re-sells placed around 0.7400 with more planned 0.7420-25. USDCAD: Now finding support at 1.2520 after capping at 1.2580 with that large option interest yesterday at 1.2480 having helped to underpin along with the CADJPY supply.Firmer oil and CADJPY demand since helping to cap. Large options tomorrow 1.2450-60 in play should we break lower.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 08.43 BST

GBPUSD 1.3941

EURUSD 1.1874

EURGBP 0.8518

GBPEUR 1.1740

GBPJPY 152.11

GBPZAR 19.8565

GBPHKD 10.8000

USDJPY 109.11

USDZAR 14.2487

EURJPY 129.57

EURCHF 1.0735

EURHKD 9.1994

AUDUSD 0.7417

USDCAD 1.2521

USDCHF 0.9040

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