Forex pairs still ranging as another week closes
Friday 11 June 2021
Yesterday the ECB came and went with little impact as expected and deferred any further news/decision until September while US CPI came out stronger than expected but not enough to convince the Fed that action needs to be taken per my tweet.
With the hawks disappointed therefore we've seen decent rallies in equities/commodities/risk although EURCHF looking soggy still with CHF strong as I've been highlighting this week. USDCHF remains on the back foot also therefore amid some general USD selling.
Jury on the Greenback still out while risk sentiment remains fragile/variable. As always in these fickle times ignore the noise and be careful with your trading as we continue to range tightly. Pick your preferred entry/exit levels and don't be greedy or over-analyze. Patience and discipline are key too of course. Let the algos do the work around CBs, data releases and headlines and take advantage of that as suits your interest. Trying to predict ahead of the event rarely works well.
GBPUSD: A good hold at 1.4080 and a decent rally since to test 1.4180-1.4200 again. The pair has been underpinned in its rally by EURGBP selling and better risk GBPJPY buying as per my tweets. I remain a rally seller but respecting the dip demand/range trading.EURGBP: Underpinned still at 0.8580 after a decent retreat yesterday from 0.8645 pre/post ECB but with those large options at 0.8600 holding it up for a while and playing out on GBPUSD as per my tweets.GBPJPY: Holding 154.20 on the retreat and a decent rally on the beter risk tones and USDJPY underpinned at 109.20-30 but capping at 155.25
I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but still not getting over greedy with expectation on the retreats.
EURUSD: A good cap hold of 1.2140-50 during the ECB underpinned by those large Put interests as I reported here so you were forewarned but I reminded on Twitter too and pips banked again. Also helped by the EURGBP option interest at 0.8600.Large option interest again today. USDJPY: Holding 109.30 this time in yesterday's retreat but tightly bound still as we cap into 109.80.EURJPY: 133.00 still providing a base with core pairs both underpinned but capping at 133.60 again. Jury still out on risk plays.USDCHF: Holding 0.8930 this time in its latest retreat from 0.8990 with CHF still looking wanted overall with EURCHF supply notable still but with the SNB ever vigilant. EURCHF: Capped into 1.0930 still and now breaking down through 1.0900 in Asia but holding 1.0885 so far with SNB shadow ever present.
AUDUSD: More options interest around 0.7750 today and should help support but 0.7780 capping after breaking up through 0.7765. USDCAD: Holding 1.2080 again where have large option interest today very much in the mix as I warned yesterdy and should help keep contained. .
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a good week-end everyone.
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