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  • Mike Paterson

Forex pairs still ranging with BOE now in focus

Thursday 6 May 2021

Today brings the latest BOE decision and the biggest local elections day in the UK in a long long while which will be a barometer of government support but not likely to be too shaken atm given the happy-clappy vaccine roll out optimism. Results will start drifting out tomorrow but the full picture may not be fully known until Monday.A parliamentary by-election taking place too and that result should be known before European markets open tomorrow.

Not expecting much from the BOE but as always we'll keep an eye on the vote count and I would expect some cautious tones again re tapering too early but with one eye very firmly on rising inflation ( lots of anecdotal evidence as well as data to suggest its happening) and the statement could yet be on the hawkish side. However, as the Fed have taught markets so far, it can be moe than a little premature to factor in rate hikes.

Better risk sentiment prevailing again amid firmer equity and commodities markets, including gold. Meanwhile around 100 French fishing boats have descended on Jersey in protest about post-Brexit fishing licences and Boris has sent in a small naval presence. Yep, who would have thought it.! Some better final UK Service PMI data just out but GBP pairs not so impressed.

Jury still definitely out on the Greenback and forex pairs so, as always in these fickle times, be careful with your trading. Pick your preferred entry/exit levels and don't be greedy or over-analyze. Patience a virtue too of course.

GBPUSD: Yet another cap around 1.3920-30 after finding support this time at the higher 1.3880 level yesterday and re-sells duly placed per ongoing strategy. EURGBP selling again helping to underpin initially then risk-on GBPJPY demand.

Offers: 1.3920-25, 1.3935, 1.3950-55, 1.3975-80, 1.4000-05, 1.4025-30 and 1.4050, 1.4075, 1.4100

Bids: 1.3880-85, 1.3865, 1.3850,1.3820-25, 1.3810, 1.3800, 1.3780-85, 1.3750-60,1.3730, 1.3700

EURGBP: A good hold of 0.8620-25 as the Euro found some dip demand yet again as I've warned but equally rally sellers still poised. Let's see what any BOE impact brings.

Offers: 0.8660-65, 0.8680-85, 0.8700, 0.8725-30 (large), 0.8750 (large), 0.8780, 0.8800

Bids: 0.8635-40, 0.8620-25, 0.8600, 0.8580-85, 0.8560,0.8530, 0.8500

GBPJPY: Rally sellers at 152.20 prevailing again for the moment after finding good support at 151.80

Offers: 152.20-25, 152.50, 152.75, 153.00, 153.30, 153.50

Bids: 151.80, 151.60, 151.25-30, 151.00, 150.80, 150.50, 150.30, 150.00,

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but still not getting over greedy with expectation on the retreats. Caution advised still as equally a case for buying dips still atm. Let's see what the BOE brings to shake it up if at all.

EURUSD: A good hold of 1.1980 but 1.2050 still expected to provide a cap. USDJPY: Still rangiong 109.00-50. EURJPY: The cap at 131.50 now history as the Euro finds buyers again after holding above 131.20 on some better risk tones.USDCHF: Testing 0.9100 as I type as EURUSD rallies but still EURCHF supply notable but with the SNB ever watchful and ready to help. EURCHF: Holding 1.0950 now still but equally failing at 1.0980

AUDUSD: Capped above 0.7730 again but finding support at 0.7700 helped by AUDJPY demand.Option interest at 0.7730-50 in play.USDCAD: 1.2270-80 support now history and tested 1.2230 amid some CADJPY demand and firmer oil prices.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 08.36 BST

GBPUSD 1.3910

EURUSD 1.2024

EURGBP 0.8643

GBPEUR 1.1567

GBPAUD 1.7959

GBPCAD 1.7044

GBPJPY 152.05

GBPZAR 19.8605

GBPHKD 10.7767

USDJPY 109.33

USDZAR 14.2865

EURJPY 131.46

EURCHF 1.0960

EURHKD 9.3157

AUDUSD 0.7747

USDCAD 1.2253

USDCHF 0.9113

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