Fragile risk still prevailing
Monday 29 June 2020
A new week is underway with month and quarter end in the mix too and we're seeing some USD supply amid softer risk sentiment following on from Friday's moves and news of increasing COVID-19 cases in the US,China and elsewhere.
All still very mixed out there though. BOE Governor Baily speaking at 09.30 GMT but not expected to produce anything to bother the algos. We'll stay poised though.
GBPUSD fell heavily on Friday helped by GBPJPY supply and EURGBP demand but found support below 1.2320 but equally finding sellers on the bounce above 1.2380.EURGBP initially failed above 0.9100 on Friday but has held 0.9080 as month-end demand continues to kick in and now up to 0.9121 (GBPEUR down to 1.0961) again.GBPJPY retreated from 132.80 on Friday's softer risk but has held 132.00 to post 132.70 before retreating again this morning.
I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever but patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always. I still expect to see some dip demand though as month-end approaches but cross-flows will produce a mixed bag.
USDJPY capped above 107.30 again and now lower at 107.14 on the softer risk/softer USD combo. EURJPY broke 120.00 but held 119.80 on Friday but since failing above 120.60 on the bounce atm.Ranging tightly still as are core pairs. EURUSD found support around 1.1200 again on the back of those large option expiries and softer USD tones and I hope the steer helped as we now post 1.1267 on the rally.
USDCHF failed at 0.9500 but has held 0.9460 on the retreat to test 0.9480 as EURCHF holds 1.0620 with the SNB ever vigilant.
AUDUSD has based ar 0.6840 after a softer risk retreat on Friday but equally failing at 0.6900 and since back down to post 0.6867 as I type. USDCAD has found a base into 1.3630 again but equally can't hold above above 1.3700 amid the variable risk/oil price/month-end combo.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. .
Interbank rates: 08.45 BST