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  • Mike Paterson

Fragile risk tones greet the new week

Monday 16 August 2021

Ugly scenes in Afghanistan as the Taliban take control are adding to the general sorry state of our globe amid all the COVID concerns and other issues. I have warned about the generally fragile outlook for a while now and traded my book accordingly but it really gives me no pleasure amid such awful and tragic events.


Equities, oil and US treasury yields all lower and a notable demand for JPY and CHF helping driving cross pairs lower and helping to cap core pairs amid the general USD supply.


Patience and discipline in trading are key as ever and not being greedy as we continue to range tightly overall. Still some good two-way pips to be had as the jury remains out so picking your moments and levels are more important than ever.


GBPUSD: Bids/support around 1.3800 duly held the fall on Friday.Pips banked again with re-sells into 1.3850 and 1.3880 per ongoing strategy while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always.EURGBP: Capping at 0.8520 per the orderboard but supported below 0.8500 still as core pairs run in tandem by and large.GBPJPY: 152.50 offers provided the cap as risk turned sour and now holding below 152.00 as we test ever lower into 151.20-30. The selling helping to cap core pairs too.


I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. These are risk sentiment markets and ever fickle so good/tight position management essential.


EURUSD: Capping at 1.1800 now but finding support at 1.1780 as USD supply runs into EURJPY and EURCHF supply on the softer risk tones with cross flows very much making an impact still.USDJPY: 110.30 duly broke and became the cap as we headed lower on the softer USD and JPY demand as we now test decent support at 109.30. EURJPY: 129.60 now providing resistance and currently testing 128.80 again amid the softer risk tones.USDCHF: 0.9200-20 support now histort amid the softer USD and firmer CHF risk-off demand but with the SNB ever vigiliant as we now run into 0.9120 support with EURCHF also in retreat. EURCHF: 1.0800-20 now the resistance as we retreat amid the softer risk CHF demand but with SNB shadow ever present.

Offer: 1.0780, 1.0800, 1.0820, 1.0840, 1.0860, 1.0880, 1.0900


AUDUSD: A failure at 0.7380 but equally finding support at the 0.7330 line again too with some large option interest tomorrow casting a shadow amid the AUDJPY-led retreat.USDCAD: Found a base at 1.2500 on Friday again with softer oil price and CADJPY selling in play too but finding sellers above 1.2550 amid the generally softer USD tones.


Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.


Interbank rates: 08.52 BST

GBPUSD 1.3856

EURUSD 1.1782

EURGBP 0.8502

GBPEUR 1.1760

GBPJPY 151.63

GBPCAD 1.7375

GBPZAR 20.3635

GBPHKD 10.7426

USDJPY 109.41

EURJPY 128.92

EURCHF 1.0781

EURHKD 9.1348

AUDUSD 0.7337

USDCAD 1.2544

USDCHF 0.9149



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