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  • Mike Paterson

Fragile times still

Tuesday 23 August 2022

More of the same in the last 24 hours with the Greenback still underpinned overall and fragile risk sentiment with JPY and CHF demand still helping to cap cross and core pairs.

Equities are retreating again this morning albeit seemingly still underpinned but with oil a little higher as Saudi Arabia warns of OPEC output cuts. Jackson Hole at the end of the week casting a shadow still as markets continue to second-guess the CBs. PMI data on the wires as I type and it's not pretty reading, as expected.

GBPUSD: Currently capped now at 1.1800 as the decline continues and new lows of 1.1718. I will stand poised for re-sells as we continue to range with patience a virtue still. EURGBP: Looking soggy again after capping at 0.8460 as EUR weakness outstrips GBP supply albeit still ranging. Two-way business still envisaged. GBPJPY: Currently capped around 162.00 on the softer risk tones but supported this time at 160.80 so far and heading back up as I type. The risk and USD jury remain out and we can expect some fragile price action still.

EURUSD: Testing 0.9900 after consolidation below parity. Rally sellers including me still ever-poised.

USDJPY: Still underpinned and holding 137.00 currently after the softer risk retreat from 137.70 helped by a little USD selling this morning as I type. EURJPY: Capped into 137.00 as the retreat continues but forming a base now around 135.75 on some core pair dip demand.Sellers poised still whenever sentiment turns as I've been warning. USDCHF: Capping at an old line at 0.9660 on the softer risk tones and some USD supply with EURCHF in retreat too but holding at 0.9630 with the SNB ever vigilant. CHF demand still notable helped by rate hike expectations.EURCHF: 0.9600 support broken and now the new resistance with SNB smoothing in the extended retreat to 0.9550 but the inherent CHF demand still capping rallies too.

AUDUSD: Still finding good support around 0.6860 after a cap this time at 0.6900. GBPAUD now holding 1.7050 after the break down through 1.7100 as GBPUSD retreat outstrips AUDUSD but dip demand in both for the moment.NZDUSD capping at 0.6200 this time and testing 0.6160-65 again amid the firmer USD/softer risk tones but some dip demand as I type. GBPNZD holding around 1.9000 after failure above 1.9050 but rally sellers still poised. USDCAD: Capped at 1.3060 and now falling to 1.3017 as I type amid the firmer oil tones following the Saudi comments with some CADJPY demand notable. Expecting some two-way business overall though still amid the fickle variables.

Let's continue to be careful out there.

Interbank rates: 08.03 BST

GBPUSD 1.1743

EURUSD 0.9912

EURGBP 0.8440

GBPEUR 1.1846

GBPJPY 161.08

GBPCAD 1.5330

GBPCHF 1.1362

GBPZAR 19.9920

GBPHKD 9.1688

USDJPY 137.18

EURJPY 136.00

EURCHF 0.9560

EURHKD 7.7400

AUDUSD 0.6868

NZDUSD 0.6169

USDCAD 1.3038

USDCHF 0.9647

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