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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

FX markets ranging again as the jury remains out

Thursday 16 August 2018

Lots of huff and puff but little in terms of solid moves in the past 24 hours as markets continue to evaluate trade and Turkey concerns.

GBPUSD fell to 1.2665 helped by some general USD demand and GBPJPY/CHF supply but come the 4pm fix and some noised off by the Trumpster we saw a swift return to 1.271o then a test of 1.2730 which has held so far. Next data off the rank to feed the algos is UK July Retail Sales today at 09.30 BST following yesterday's fairly neutral inflation report but one still shows wages not really making any gains.

Immediate support/buying interest now around 1.2700 again with large option expiry interest there today then larger into 1.2680 and 1.2650 still.Sellers still poised around 1.2730 then 1.2750 with larger between 1.2780-00 and 1.2830. Still ranging though so keep selling the rallies but continue to be aware of dip demand given the extensive recent falls.

EURGBP tested the 0.8900 support (GBPEUR resistance 1.1235) again only to rally once more as the Pound came under renewed pressure. Large option expiry interest today at 0.8950 in focus and proving a bit of magnet and helping to cap GBPUSD. Should be interesting to see what prevails at 15.00 BST with the GBPUSD option interest in play too. Sellers still poised between 0.8950-60 then larger between 0.8980-0.9000. Some buyers back in now around 0.8930 then larger into 0.8900 and between 0.8870-80 still.

EURUSD has found a few buyers again as some risk-on sentiment returns and the US$ gives up a few gains to rally and test 1.1400. Sellers still there, 1.1430 and between 1.1450-60 Large option contract interest still at the now pivotal 1.1500 will help cap further rallies if we get anywhere close.Buyers immediately around 1.1350 with larger interest now into 1.1330 and 1.1300 still.

USDJPY continues to range failing once again above 111.30 with general Yen demand never too far away but some support still notable around 110.50 .Sellers poised into 111.00, 111.30 and 111.50 still. USDCHF remains underpinned above 0.9900 with the SNB never too far away and that is now filtering through to EURCHF which has also found a few buyers amid the general Euro upward correction.Sellers remain poised on both though but we can continue to expect dip demand.

AUDUSD held the next layer of option related support at 0.7200 but looked a little soggy still as Gold continued to fall only to bounce back through 0.7250 in Asia. Buyers now at 0.7250 then 0.7230 and 0.7200. Immediate sell interest now into 0.7280 and 0.7300 then 0.7320 still. USDCAD rallied strongly on weaker oil prices but continues to range. Sellers now into 1.3160 and 1.3180-00 with buyers poised around 1.3100,1.3080 and 1.3050 still.

Fickle and volatile markets still prevailing so get your orders in to take full advantage of these moves.

Have a good day out there one and all.

Interbank Rate 08.42 BST GBPUSD   1.2706 EURUSD   1.1368 EURGBP   0.8949 GBPEUR   1.1185 USDJPY   110.83 USDCAD   1.3131 USDCHF   0.9940 GBPAUD   1.7500 GBPCAD   1.6685 GBPCHF   1.2632 GBPZAR   18.4477 GBPHKD   9.8510 EURHKD   8.8073

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