FX markets singing the same song
Tuesday 29 June 2021
Not a lot to add to recent comments as we begin another day with FX pairs still ranging, equities and commodities still underpinned and Bitcoin steady again. Some JPY demand notable again though along with some general USD demand as we head into month-end where Citi's early signals were pointing to small net USD outflows but not too evident at the moment. ECB's Lagarde speaks at 13.40 GMT.
USD and risk sentiment remain variable/fragile though so patience and discipline are key of course and not being greedy, as ever. The always over-hyped NFP data will be in focus this week as markets continue to try and second-guess CBs on inflation. Talking of which the regional German CPI data has come in softer than previous so far but the UK housing market continues to rise.
GBPUSD: Bids at 1.3880 now given way and testing the next tranche at 1.3845-50 as I type and some pips banked per my tweet. I remain a rally seller but still expecting dip demand. Keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always.
EURGBP: Rallies still capped into 0.8600 but support into 0.8580 now.GBPJPY: Holding around an old line 153.20 in the latest retreat but capping at 153.60 so far this morning.The retreat still proving my ongoing short GBPJPY position across core pairs to be the correct one. I hope the steer has helped.
I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as the new week reveals itself. Risk to the downside though still overall.
EURUSD: Finding support at 1.1900 atm having broken down through 1.1920 amid USD demand with no visible option support now. USDJPY: Finding support around 110.50 but sellers,including me, poised between 110.80-111.00 still as JPY demand evident on the crosses. EURJPY: 131.60 forming a good base again where we have pivoted in the past but rally sellers still poised into 132.00 and 132.20.USDCHF: Underpinned at 0.9180 now as EURUSD retreats further with the SNB ever vigilant but sellers at 0.9220 lurking now.EURCHF: Holding 1.0940 still with SNB shadow/help ever present but sellers poised into 1.0980 still too.
AUDUSD: Still finding sellers like me into 0.7600 and now 0.7580 and now testing 0.7530. Notable absence of any options nearby this week. USDCAD: Strong support line at 1.2270-80 still and now breaking up through 1.2360 helped by some CADJPY selling still notable.Options interest today downstairs at 1.2300
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Come on England !!!!!
Interbank rates: 08.45 BST