FX pairs pausing for thought again
Thursday 8 April 2021
You know I love to invoke the wrath of the Forex gods by saying things like "we're ranging still" or "I can't see much happening atm" so let's hope they're reading this given the tight ranges we find once again after a lot of decent action so far this week. Today sees large options interest in play on EURUSD which should contain as well.
That's not to say there isn't some good two-way pips to be had but markets now in wait and see mode again. Much hype and headline over AZ vaccine has become a bit of a focus in the absence of anything else to write about. There were no real surprises as expected in the FOMC meeting Minutes with officials revising up GDP estimates but continuing to see no interest rate hikes through 2023. Many analysts beg to differ though. Fed's Powell addresses an IMF meeting on the global economy at 17.00 BST.
GBPUSD: The retreat has continued amid softer risk GBPJPY selling and EURGBP demand again and down we've come down to now look at 1.3725. Some pips banked on original fall and resells made into 1.3780 as per my tweets yesterday. Falling again now as I type.EURGBP: Yesterday saw further gains to post 0.8463, nearly 200 pips from our Easter lows, so a retreat from there was understandable with EURUSD also finding sellers above 1.1900. Still underpinned though with a base forming around 0.8625 now with EURUSD supported at 1.1860.GBPJPY: Still looking soggy amid softer risk tones and some M&A chatter but finding support at 150.30 currently.
I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but still not getting over greedy with expectation on the retreats. Nice when it happens though.
EURUSD: Underpinned at 1.1860 now after running out of steam above 1.1900 as per my tweets yesterday.Large options in play again today and will help to contain. USDJPY: Sellers,including me, still prevailing amid the softer risk tones and that M&A chatter on GBPJPY I mentioned above. Now vappingay 109.80 but support in the dips still.EURJPY: Failed from 130.70 and now finding a cap at previous resistance of 130.50 and now testing 130.00 as I type. Large line at 129.80 still.USDCHF: Support coming in at 0.9270 but equally sell sell interest above 0.9300 as EURUSD demand continues with EURCHF holding 1.10320 atm with the SNB ever watchful and ready to help.EURCHF: 1.1020 now the latest line of support helped by the general EUR demand and SNB shadow.
AUDUSD: Failing at 0.7650 after finding some options-led support at 0.7620 then 0.7600.USDCAD: Held 1.2580 this time and rallied well on softer oil and some CADJPY selling but failing at 1.2635 this time as oil finds some support in the dips.
Masters golf starts today from Augusta and a sporting event right up there in my top 3. Turn off all the clocks and just feast your senses for the next 4 days.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.36 BST