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  • Mike Paterson

Good two-way business still

Thursday 7 October 2021

We've seen a little bit of firmer risk sentiment prevailing in Asia since yesterday's falls but equities and yields falling again now as I type so we've got mixed USD tones again as JPY and CHF demand return capping cross and core pairs. Oil and gas prices off their highs too. US NFP jobs/wages data tomorrow casts a shadow but you know my thoughts on data releases by now. Just be poised with your entry/exit levels and don't over-analyze/anticipate.


A few central bank speakers today from the ECB, Fed and BOC to keep an eye out for should they produce anything the algos might grab hold of.


Amid all this general market uncertainty I will repeat that patience and discipline in trading are key, as ever, and not being greedy. Ignore the noise and countless amount of "analysts" trying to explain the reasons for moves. Just focus on the price action and decide what presents value or doesn't.


GBPUSD: A good hold below 1.3550 yesterday and some pips banked in the retreat per my tweets but equally unable to hold above 1.3600 in the rallies and re-sells duly placed again. I remain a rally seller but respecting some ongoing dip demand while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always. EURGBP: 0.8500 support finally broken but the larger interest at 0.8480-85 still holding albeit with limited rallies again thus far as EURUSD retreats along with GBPUSD. GBPJPY: Failure above 151.50 amid the softer risk tones now having held 150.75-80 yesterday as risk turned a little fiormer. Still good two-way pips expected in these ever-fickle-risk times.


I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. These are risk sentiment markets and ever fickle so good/tight position management essential.


EURUSD: A good hold of 1.1530 yesterday helped by some firmer risk tones and cross pair demand but rally sellers remain poised into 1.1580. The pair still finds itself in the middle of cross-flow action and variable risk plays. USDJPY: Yesterday's rally duly capped at 111.80 as JPY demand returned and now down to 111.30 as that trend returns and I've banked some pips in the retreat to 111.50 and down here. EURJPY: 128.80 line of support broken in yesterday's risk-off retreat but new line in at 128.40 as we continue to range. Sellers poised into 129.00.

USDCHF: 0.9260 support being tested again as I type after failing above 0.9300 and now 0.9280 as EURUSD firms again but EURCHF falls to new recent lows with chf demand notable again but with the SNB ever vigilant.EURCHF: Some CHF demand notable again along with a generally soggy EUR and 1.0730-40 support now history and testing 1.0700 with SNB shadow ever present on this and USDCHF.


AUDUSD: 0.7220-30 held yesterday's fall and we've seen a steady rally to test 0.7300 again amid the firmer risk/softer USD tones. USDCAD: 1.2550-60 still continues to provde support after failing at 1.2650 amid the softer USD/firmer oil tones before reversing this morning. More option interest tomorrow in play.


Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.


Interbank rates: 08.33 BST

GBPUSD 1.3595

EURUSD 1.1563

EURGBP 0.8506

GBPEUR 1.1752

GBPJPY 151.25

GBPCAD 1.7094

GBPZAR 20.2438

GBPHKD 10.5866

USDJPY 111.29

EURJPY 128.68

EURCHF 1.0717

EURHKD 9.0084

AUDUSD 0.7297

USDCAD 1.2578

USDCHF 0.9268


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