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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Good two-way business still

Thursday 25 November 2021

Happy Thanksgiving to all our US readers

Still more of the same in the past 24 hours with variable but mostly underpinned USD and risk tones. Oil prices are tightly bound ahead of next week's OPEC+ meeting. Gold off its lows but failing to get back through 1800.

US data out yesterday came in strong, adding to the bullish USD tones then FOMC Minutes came out with nothing really of note tha we didn't already know. One notable change of tone on the FOMC did come out earlier when dove Daly called for a quicker pace of tapering. US markets are closed today for the Thanksgiving long week-end so we'll wait to see whether that means a bit of a snooze-fest or that the lesser liquidity might produce a bit of action.

It's still a case of markets and traders second-guessing the central banks over inflation measures with variable risk sentiment ever-lurking amid rising COVID cases in Europe and political unease around Ukraine, Taiwan and elsewhere. A fragile world out there still.

GBPUSD: Fresh lows of 1.3315 and pips gratefully banked again but failing around the pivotal 1.3350 in the rally so far. The pair does remain underpinned by GBPJPY but some EURGBP dip demand helping to cap again. GBPUSD rally sellers, including me, ever poised. EURGBP: Another good hold of 0.8380-85 in the latest retreat ((GBPEUR capping at 1.1915) and now back up to 0.8416 (GBPEUR down to 1.1880) as we continue to range. GBPJPY: Sellers around 154.00 now prevailing but equally 153.50-60 still providing decent support.

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs overall as my preferred trading side but being patient as ever. These markets are ever-fickle so good/tight position management essential.

EURUSD: Support/bids at 1.1185 per my orderboard holding the dip below 1.1200 yesterday and some pips duly banked. Sellers now poised between 1.1230-50. USDJPY: Another strong rally yesterday amid the firmer USD/risk tones to test the stonger 115.50 offers/res once 115.25 broke. Flatlining for the moment with support coming in at that 115.25 level. EURJPY: 129.30 now providing support as core pairs find dip demand and generally firmer risk tones but with rally sellers poised into 129.50-60 still.USDCHF: Support now coming in between 0.9320 again amid firmer USD and with the SNB ever vigilant after capping at 0.9375 as EURCHF falls from 1.0500 to test 1.0453 again. EURCHF: 1.0480 support now history but the bigger 1.0450 line still intact with SNB shadow lurking after the continued retreat from 1.0500. I hope my repeated highlight of sellers up there served you well.

AUDUSD: 0.7200 support now broken amid the firmer USD tones but the next line at 0.7180 holding so far. Sellers now poised 0.7200-10. USDCAD: 1.2640 now holding after the latest dip amid firmer risk/oil prices and hence some CADJPY demand again but sellers poised into 1.2680..

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 08.43 GMT

GBPUSD 1.3342

EURUSD 1.1225

EURGBP 0.8412

GBPEUR 1.1885

GBPJPY 153.87

GBPCAD 1.6865

GBPZAR 21.0897

GBPHKD 10.3880

USDJPY 115.34

EURJPY 129.48

EURCHF 1.0474

EURHKD 8.7404

AUDUSD 0.7194

USDCAD 1.2647

USDCHF 0.9330

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