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  • Mike Paterson

Good two-way business still.

Tuesday 5 October 2021

Variable risk sentiment still prevailing with equities and yields still making their mind up and we've seen mixed USD and JPY/CHF tones accordingly. Oil and gas prices continue to rise.


Some better final PMI numbers out this morning but I'm not hanging my trading hat on data at the moment. RBA left rates and policy on hold as expected.


Amid all this market uncertainty I will repeat that patience and discipline in trading are key, as ever, and not being greedy. Ignore the noise and countless amount of "analysts" trying to explain the reasons for moves. Just focus on the price action and decide what presents value or doesn't.


GBPUSD: Another good rally yesterday but failing at 1.3640 and fresg re-sells duly placed on the rise. Good support at 1.3580 now per my tweet yesterday and pips duly banked. I remain a rally seller but respecting current dip demand while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always. EURGBP: 0.8550-60 now capping rallies as the general GBP demand continues and now testing 0.8515-20 support as I type. GBPJPY: 150.50-60 now good support as GBP demand continues amid some better risk tones generally and now 151.50 being tarfeted again as I type.


I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. These are risk sentiment markets and ever fickle so good/tight position management essential.


EURUSD: Holding 1.1585 still but the rally failing this time at 1.1640. The pair still finds itself in the middle of cross-flow action and variable risk plays. USDJPY: Another hold of 110.80 as we continue to range and now back up to 111.15. EURJPY: 129.50 capping yesterday's rally but 128.80 now latest line of support as we continue to range. USDCHF: 0.9280 support now gone as EURCHF falls through 1.0870 too but finding support at 0.9240 for the moment with SNB ever vigilant. EURCHF: Some CHF demand notable and a fall to 1.0735 but with SNB shadow ever present on this and USDCHF.


AUDUSD: 0.7250 provided good support helped by yesterday's option interest and the rally continued but failed above 0.7300 and retrested back to 0.7250 after RBA decision or rather lack of any. Still good two-way business to be had whatever your bias. USDCAD: The retreat continued yesterday to look at 1.2550 amid the softer USD and firmer oil tones but heading back to 1.2600 as I type. Large option interest at 1.2615-25 today still casting a shadow as I warned yesterday.


Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.


Interbank rates: 08.40 BST

GBPUSD 1.3606

EURUSD 1.1593

EURGBP 0.8521

GBPEUR 1.1732

GBPJPY 151.21

GBPCAD 1.7148

GBPZAR 20.4566

GBPHKD 10.6100

USDJPY 111.14

EURJPY 128.87

EURCHF 1.0745

EURHKD 9.0428

AUDUSD 0.7267

USDCAD 1.2604

USDCHF 0.9268


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