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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Greenback recovers somes losses but market uncertainty remains

Thursday 22 October 2020

Yesterday's extended US Dollar losses have seen some pull-back but markets and traders rightly remain unsure as to where we go next as the ongoing US Election/situmulus package, Brexit and COVID variables continue to play out.

I always tell FX traders in my mentoring sessions that if they're in doubt then stay out.  Discipline is ever more key in these moves but for many that is easier said than done but crucial nonetheless and the core platform for successful/consistent trading/decision making.

Fickle Forex markets continue and second-guessing is usually futile.

GBPUSD continued its Brexit/softer USD happy-clappy move up to 1.3170 having broken up through 1.3080 but we since lost some momentum and now testing 1.3100 again.EURGBP capped at 0.9100 yesterday and made a steady retreat down to test 0.9010 amid the general GBP surge but month-end demand looming again and we're currently back up to 0.9045. GBPJPY found a base at 136.80 this time round and saw a steady rally amid the firmer GBP tones to test 137.60 and still underpinned above 137.00 as I type.

No change in my basic view. GBP just operating now at the higher end of recent trading ranges.I stay poised to sell GBP rallies as my preferred side and buy back in the dips as ever.  Patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always. I still see dip demand though with markets and risk sentiment still in a state of uncertainty overall.Brexit remains the very big elephant in the room.

USDJPY continued its retreat amid the general USD supply to test 104.30 and some more pips gratefully banked but staying core short. Large option expiries now in play right here at 104.50-55. EURJPY duly found a decent cap at 124.70 as core pairs found rally sellers but equally supported at 123.80 so far this morning. EURUSD capped at fresh 1-month highs of 1.1880 but since basing at 1.1830 as the pair continues to be flicked around amid the variable USD tones and cross flows. USDCHF found support at 0.9030 again as EURUSD capped but capping into 0.9080 so far with SNB casting its shadow still.

AUDUSD finally capped at 0.7135 and now back below 0.7100 on the generally firmer USD tones this morning. USDCAD found good support at 1.3100 but has seen another retreat from 1.3180 amid the firmer oil tones and now down through 1.3150 as I type.

Markets are ever-fickle so don't forget to contact me if there's areas that you might need some further help with.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates:  08.43 BST

GBPUSD   1.3130

EURUSD   1.1860

EURGBP   0.9030

GBPEUR   1.1075

GBPAUD   1.8469

GBPCAD   1.7272

GBPJPY   137.34

USDJPY   104.55

EURJPY   124.02

EURCHF   1.0747

AUDUSD   0.7113

USDCAD   1.3145

USDCHF   0.9060

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