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  • Mike Paterson

Groundhog Day so far

Tuesday 26 July 2022

More of the same ahead of the US Fed's FOMC policy decisiobn tomorrow with the US Dollar, equities, gold all mixed but off the session highs as I type so some JPY demand capping cross and core pairs after yesterday's firmer risk rally. Oil prices popped higher by around 1.39% for Brent and 1.5% for WTI in Asia helped by a report that oil stored on tankers fell to the lowest level since February.

Focus also will remain on the Russian gas supplies to Europe wih talk of 20% cuts through the NS1 pipeline, undermining the Euro still.

As always, don't over-analyse but be ready with your preferred levels/strategy, place orders and let the algos do the heavy work. Discipline is key as always but equally hesitation can often ruin a great idea.

GBPUSD: Holding 1.2020 but equally capping at 1.2090 as we continue to range. Some EURGBP dip demand and GBPJPY supply helping to cap vs some month-end USD supply.Poised for rally resells as ever.EURGBP: Clinging onto 0.8480 support area amid general EUR supply but failing to rally too far. I still think we'll see two-way pips overall as the CB jury remains out.

GBPJPY: Now capping at 165.00 a few times and testing 164.30 retreat lows again as I type as the JPY/risk jury remains out.

EURUSD: Still seeing good two-way business. Underpinned at 1.0180-00 and capping still at 1.0250. USDJPY: Tightly bound amid month-end and cross flows. Holding 136.25 now buT capping at 136.80. EURJPY: Support around 139.30 now but capping at 139.80. Sellers poised still whenever risk turns and/or reality checks back into town.USDCHF: Support still at 0.9620 but failure yet again at the previous support line at 0.9660 amid the mixed USD/risk tones. SNB will be keeping an eye on things as ever.

EURCHF: Capping at 0.9880 in yesterday' rally and now falling back below 0.9760 on some softer risk tones as we range tightly still. SNB will be watching.

AUDUSD: A good cap at 0.6980-85 again but holding 0.6940-50 in the retreat still. Some support also from China's reported move to provide some property sector backstop funding.GBPAUD holding 1.7280 in latest retreat but tightly bound still after capping at 1.7350. NZDUSD also tightly bound capping at 0.6280 but now holding 0.6250 as I type. GBPNZD holding 1.9220 this time after after capping into 1.9280-00 again.USDCAD: Testing that solid base at 1.2820 again in a sharp retreat from 1.2940 as oil price rallied and helped by some month-end USD supply.

Let's continue to be careful out there and have a good week.

Interbank rates: 08.38 BST

GBPUSD 1.2045

EURUSD 1.0223

EURGBP 0.8483

GBPEUR 1.1786

GBPJPY 164.62

GBPCAD 1.5466

GBPCHF 1.1601

GBPZAR 20.1117

GBPHKD 9.3831

USDJPY 136.66

EURJPY 139.65

EURCHF 0.9861

EURHKD 7.9612

AUDUSD 0.6966

USDCAD 1.2824

USDCHF 0.9650

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