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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Happy-clappy brigade back in town

Friday 8 October 2021

Firmer risk sentiment prevailing as the US debt ceiling issue gets fixed albeit only delayed until December but, hey, that's doesn't worry the happy-clappy brigade and we've seen some USD demand return amid the equity, oil and yield rallies with JPY and CHF supply underpinning cross and core pairs.

US NFP data at 12.30 GMT casts a shadow still but you know my thoughts on data releases by now. Just be poised with your entry/exit levels and don't over-analyze/anticipate. Let the algos do the heavy work.

Amid all this general market uncertainty I will repeat that patience and discipline in trading are key, as ever, and not being greedy. Ignore the noise and countless amount of "analysts" trying to explain the reasons for moves. Just focus on the price action and decide what presents value or doesn't.

GBPUSD: A good cap at 1.3640 yesterday and now testing 1.3580 per my tweets. I remain a rally seller but respecting the risk-on dip demand while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always. EURGBP: 0.8480-85 finally gave way to post lows of 0.8470 amid the general EUR weakness and GBP demand. Rallying as I type and helping to push GBPUSD lower but sellers poised. GBPJPY: Solid rally amid the firmer risk tones having held 151.50 but capping at 152.40 in Asia. Still good two-way pips expected in these ever-fickle-risk times.

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. These are risk sentiment markets and ever fickle so good/tight position management essential.

EURUSD: A good hold of 1.1540 this morning helped by some firmer risk tones and cross pair dip demand again but rally sellers remain poised and now that line would appear to be 1.1560 ahead of the larger 1.1580 area. The pair still finds itself in the middle of cross-flow action and variable risk plays. USDJPY: A steady move higher amid the risk-on JPY supply and USD demand now sees a test of 112.00 after a good hold of 111.60. EURJPY: New line in at 128.80-00 amid the firmer risk tones and EUR dip demand as we continue to range. Sellers poised into 129.50. USDCHF: 0.9260 support broke briefly yesterday but now back above 0.9300 as EURUSD and EURCHF both find dip demnd too and with the SNB ever vigilant. EURCHF: 1.0700 held with SNB shadow ever present on this and USDCHF and now back to 1.0745 amid the firmer risk tones.

AUDUSD: A good rally to 0.7320 amid the firmer risk tone and large option interest at 0.7300 and 0.7335-40 today Subsequent retreat finding buyers into 0.7280.USDCAD: 1.2540 proiding support after failing at 1.200 amid the firmer oil tones and risk-on CADJPY demand. More option interest today very much in play.

Here's to the mighty Shrimpers of Southend picking up another 3 points at home tomorrow.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 08.45 BST

GBPUSD 1.3586

EURUSD 1.1546

EURGBP 0.8495

GBPEUR 1.1769

GBPJPY 152.17

GBPCAD 1.7050

GBPZAR 20.3045

GBPHKD 10.5905

USDJPY 111.97

EURJPY 129.28

EURCHF 1.0736

EURHKD 9.0017

AUDUSD 0.7296

USDCAD 1.2546

USDCHF 0.9300

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