Iran retaliates further but FX markets resilient
Wednesday 8 January 2020
Iran launched ballistic missile attacks on two US-led bases in Iraq (casualties unknown) and we saw immediate risk-off plays with USDJPY falling to 107.65 and JPY/CHF pairs sharply lower and gold/oil spiking higher but with markets, and the world, waiting on Trump's response later today it appears,strangely,we have some better risk sentiment prevailing.
GBPUSD duly retreated yesterday and provided yet another good rally-sell opportunity but equally the dip buyers have enjoyed the move back up too. EURGBP has fallen again as GBPUSD rallies but EURUSD stays undermined to post lows of 0.8454 (GBPEUR up to 1.1828).GBPJPY fell on the Iran strikes to test decent support at 141.00 but since posted 142.85 as risk appetite improves and core pairs rally.
I stay poised to sell GBP rallies and buy back in the dips as ever but still see some good two-way business as we continue in these tight ranges.
EURUSD has fallen to test the 1.1125 support line I highlighted yesterday and with another EUR1bln+ in expiries today we can expect more support albeit with rally sellers poised as the pair remains tightly bound. USDJPY has rallied from the 107.65 lows to test 108.50 again on some better risk sentiment and the failure to break down through the decent lines at 107.60 even 107.75-80 finally gave way. EURJPY has also found some support again amid the USDJPY demand but sellers remain poised. USDCHF has rallied well too from the post-Iran strike lows of 0.9665 and posted 0.9717. EURCHF has support in the dips too with the SNB being ever vigilant but sellers remain poised on both.
AUDUSD has fallen again to test 0.6850 on the risk-off AUDJPY supply initially only to rally but still finding additional pressure from the tragic forest-fire devastation. USDCAD remains tightly bound amid the uncertain risk sentiment versus firmer oil price expectations but has now broken up through 1.3000 as oil prices retreat after the overnight spike.
Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.
Have a good day out there one and all.
Interbank rates: 08.43 GMT