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  • Mike Paterson

It's all trading tightly still with ECB in focus today

Thursday 7 March 2019

Another day and still no further clues as to general direction for markets and traders with additional caution being shown ahead of today's ECB decision and tomorrow's key US employment report. That being said we have seen some further CAD weakening after yesterday's expected dovish tones from the BOC.

GBPUSD held support lines/bids into 1.3120 and has since been back up to 1.3185 but it's tightly bound still. EURGBP has also been trading narrowly with EURUSD and GBPUSD seeing good two-way business still but ECB today casts a big shadow.

I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell then buy the dips. I've also pointed out that equally there are plenty in favour of buying dips at the moment too so I continue to see good two-way business. Brexit continues to cast a very large shadow ahead of the parliamentary votes next week and the clock ticking down to a potential 29th March exit. Jury definitely out on that too though still.

EURUSD bids at 1.1280 that I've been highlighting have provided good support again although the pair is still looking soggy.It's all down to Draghi's presser at 13.30 GMT. I don't see that he can offer anything new given the ECB are another CB stuck between a large rock and very hard place but as always we should expect the unexpected and the algos will feed off any scraps.

USDJPY failed again to make head way higher and broke down through the 111.70 bids on some general USD weakness post-US trade data and some risk-off JPY demand on reports that N. Korea is rebuilding an ICBM launch site but still with importer demand providing support into 111.50 50.USDCHF remains underpinned but has still failed to clear out those 1.0060 offers I've mentioned with EURCHF and EURUSD still tightly bound.

AUDUSD continues to look soggy and has tested support at 0.7020 ahead of demand at 0.7000 where large options (around A$1.5bln) roll off tomorrow while USDCAD remains underpinned and has rallied further on yesterday's BOC dovish tones in their statement as expected after leaving rates on hold, also as expected.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

Housekeeping note: I am away from my desk from 12.00 GMT for a funeral so I will be unable to be of any use/tweet after that time but I hope my update now stands you in good stead.

Have a good day one and all.

Interbank Rate 08.16 GMT

GBPUSD   1.3165

EURUSD   1.1306

EURGBP   0.8587

GBPEUR   1.1643

GBPAUD   1.8704

GBPCAD   1.7697

USDJPY   111.77

EURJPY   126.38

GBPJPY   147.16

AUDUSD   0.7039

EURCHF   1.1362

USDCAD   1.3441

USDCHF   1.0048

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