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  • Mike Paterson

It's all very fragile out there still.

Friday 1 July 2022

Yesterday's final month-end USD demand was notable but then so was the reversal as business was completed but softer risk sentiment still the main theme again this morning overall with equities wobbly and JPY demand notable again helping to cap cross and core pairs albeit off the lows and rallying again as I type. Gold now lower and below $1800 as metal prices melt down with oil price coming lower again too. All amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and central banks grappling with recession fears vs inflation.

A new month and already some great two-way business so , as ever, deal on fact not second-guessing. Be ready with your preferred levels/strategy, place orders and let the algos do the heavy work. Discipline is key as always but equally hesitation can often ruin a great idea.

GBPUSD: Still holding 1.2090-00 in the latest retreat after a failure into 1.2200 helped by some GBPJPY and GBPCHF supply and EURGBP demand again. I remain poised to sell rallies. Ranging since the lows so timing as ever is crucial. EURGBP: A good hold of 0.8550 in yesterday's retreat but capping at 0.8635in the latest rally so far this morning as jury remains out and plenty of second-guessing of the ECB and BOE still. Great two-way pips as I've been highlighting for a while now.

GBPJPY: 163.30-50 holding the latest retreat this morning after capping into 165.50 again amid the softer risk tones earlier and now 164.20 on the bounce. I think the variable risk tones will help provide good two-way pips still for the moment.

EURUSD: Capped into 1.0590 on yesterday's rally as month-end USD demand faded/ended but supported around 1.0430 again so far. Ukraine still remains a very big elephant in the room quite apart from the ECB. USDJPY: Capped around 136.50 on yesterday's final USD demand push higher and since been down to 134.75 on the reversal amid the softer risk tones and JPY demand but with dip demand still expected for the moment and indeed rising again through 135.50 as I type.USDCHF: Support at 0.9540-50 back in place as 0.9980 holds on EURCHF suggesting SNB having some influence again. Sellers poised into 0.9600 now. Jury remains out on SNB and amid variable risk but CHF still in demand as further tightening expected. EURCHF: Support notable now at 0.9980 per my SNB comment above. Sellers will remain poised though.

AUDUSD: Capping at 0.6900 again and tumbling to 0.6785 amid the softer risk tones and metals price meltdown. GBPAUD failing above 1.7800 now after holding 1.7650 this time amid the extended AUDUSD retreat. NZDUSD also tumbling amid the general commodity ccy supply and some NZDJPY and NZDCHF selling but holding 0.6160 or the moment. GBPNZD bids into 1.9500 now and posting 1.9630 on the extended rally as NZDUSD tumbles. USDCAD: Another hold of 1.2850-60 and back up through 1.2900 amid the softer oil tones and general commodity ccy supply but sellers still poised.

Let's continue to be careful out there and have a top weekend.

Interbank rates: 08.48 BST

GBPUSD 1.2100

EURUSD 1.0446

EURGBP 0.8631

GBPEUR 1.1586

GBPJPY 163.81

GBPCAD 1.5633

GBPCHF 1.1595

GBPZAR 19.7658

GBPHKD 9.4260

USDJPY 135.30

EURJPY 141.40

EURCHF 1.0017

EURHKD 8.1365

AUDUSD 0.6795

USDCAD 1.2933

USDCHF 0.9590

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