Jury out again as fragile sentiment prevails
Monday 28 November 2022
Some USD supply returning this morning with equities and oil both looking softer again as the reality of recession and China COVID fall-out including local protests now, play out again but with gold making its mind up still. Geopolitical risk in Ukraine still lurking too.
Remember that conjecture and second-guessing should stand to one side on data and news releases. Focus on the price action and let the algos do the heavy lifting/dropping. The important thing is to identify your preferred risk/reward entry/exit levels prior.
GBPUSD: A good hold of 1.2025-30 and now posting 1.2115 amid the USD supply. I remain bearish overall and poised to re=sell. EURGBP: Finding good support at 0.8580-85 still in the dips and now back up testing previous support (and now pivotal) line at 0.8630-35. I expect the two-way business to continue as jury remains out on both currencies and outlook. GBPJPY: A good cap at 168.75 and now testing 166.30-50 amid the fragile risk JPY demand and USD supply which has seen USDJPY looking wobbly again.
EURUSD: A decent hold at 1.0350 this time and now testing 1.0450 as I type amid the softer USD tone and general EUR demand. Some decent-size option interest in play. USDJPY: The downward trend seems to be returning and a now a good cap at 139.50 sees 137.60 posted amid the USD supply/JPY risk-off demand double whammy.Rally-sell remains my preferred side overall. EURJPY: Capping at 144.50 and in solid retreat to 143.00 this morning before bouncing on some general EUR demand. Expect more two-way business. USDCHF: 0.9500 providing strong resistance now amid the softer USD tones and CHF demand overall but 0.9400 holding so far. SNB ever-vigilant. EURCHF: A hold below 0.9800 and now on the bounce to look at 0.9850-60 again amid the firmer EUR tones outweighing CHF demand for the moment and we continue to range.
AUDUSD: Holding 0.6660 this time after a fall from 0.6780 amid the ongoing/escalting China COVID concerns and potential RBA hike slowing.I remain a rally seller as my preferred side/strategy. GBPAUD trading 1.7950-1.8100 for the moment as core pairs make their mind up. NZDUSD supported at 0.6200 now but capping at 0.6260-80. USDCAD: Capping at 1.3475 after a good hold and rally from 1.3360 amid the softer oil prices but tempered by the USD supply.
Interbank rates: 08.55 GMT