Jury out on the Pound still as another crunch week begins
Monday 14 October 2019
Friday saw more buyers piing into the Pound on seemingly Brexit deal-positive vibes but with the EU and DUP expressing due caution over the weekend we've seen another reality check which rally sellers like me have been keen to take advantage of in Asia and early European trading. Today's Queen's Speech introducing new Tory government policy is merely a distraction and frankly pointless.
Elsewhere we've seen some conciliatory tones in US-China trade talks but nothing the market wasn't expecting and that's given risk-off sentiment some renewed credence along with Turkey's foray into Kurdish territory still grabbing a few headlines. Holidays today in US and Canada will keep liquidity thin and therefore potential volatility higher.
GBPUSD has retreated to 1.2556 from Friday's highs of 1.2665 and continues to provide good two-way business regardless of your needs.EURGBP has naturally found some support on the GBP retreat but tempered by EURUSD falling too amid the softer risk sentiment and currently back to 0.8772 from 0.8720 ( GBPEUR down to 1.1385 from 1.1465).GBPJPY has also enjoyed good two-way business but sellers remain ever poised in these fickle times.
I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.Still no reason to change my view any time soon overall and as I warned on Friday we've had many moments of optimism only to be deflated but yes the current hope/optimism still has to be respected as the madness plays out.This really could still have a number of outcomes and remains pure guesswork/conspiracy theory.
EURUSD remains underpinned helped by some risk-on EURJPY demand on Friday but we've failed around the 1.1060 offers only to hold 1.1000 on the retreat yet again. USDJPY enjoyed Friday's risk-on sentiment to test strong sell interest/resistance at 108.50 but since retreated to 108.18 this morning on renewed risk off Yen demand.USDCHF continues to find dip demand with EURCHF underpinned too as EURUSD finds support around 1.1000 with the SNB ever vigilant.
AUDUSD failed at 0.6800 with large option expiry interest there today and Thursday and has fallen to 0.6761 helped also by AUDJPY supply returning. USDCAD has broken down through 1.3200 but finding support into 1.3180 helped by CADJPY supply and softer oil prices.
Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.
Don't forget I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading this latest volatility that you might need some further help with.
Soggy day indeed at Southend on Saturday as we lost 1-4 to another struggling team and we have to hope the new manager brings a bucket load of cash along with lashings of inspiration.
Have a good day/week out there one and all.
Interbank Rate 08.45 BST