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  • Mike Paterson

Jury out still

Friday 10 December 2021

Range trading still prevailing and good two-way business again in the past 24 hours amid variable risk and USD tones but underpinned in the dips overall, albeit with the jury stll well and truly out.

COVID/Omicron unknowns continue to lurk and second-guessing on Central Banks will continue to cast a shadow with the Fed meeting on 15 Dec and both ECB and BOE on 16th. Lots of option contract interest rolling off today across a number of pairs in the mix too.

GBPUSD: Based at 1.3170 in yesterday's retreat with that strong 1.3160 support again holding followed by a rally helped by EURGBP falling only to cap at 1.3233 this time. GBPUSD rally sellers, including me, ever poised while keeping one eye at least on the EURGBP and GBPJPY cross flows. Large option interest again at 1.3200 should help to contain. EURGBP: Failure at 0.8590 this time after rallying again on the GBP selling but holding 0.8535 (GBPEUR capping aT 1.1720) in the retreat since. Expect more 2-way business amid the general uncertainty. GBPJPY: 149.60-80 provided the support this time after breaking down through 150.00 but capping at 150.30 since amid the variable risk tones and general GBP weakness. Should continue to see good two-way business as risk sentiment continues to be ever-fickle.

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs overall as my preferred trading side albeit still against the grain currently so being patient as ever. These markets are ever-fickle so good/tight position management essential.

EURUSD: Support at 1.1275 this time after failing above 1.1300 as we continue to range but looking soft again. Pips banked in the retreat. USDJPY: 113.30 broke yesterday but failed to trigger stops through 113.25 with the help of some option interest down there too. EURJPY: 128.00 support now and a sharp rally above 129.00 as Euro sentiment turned around generally. Support now in the retreat at 128.40 in the latest retreat as I type.

USDCHF: Support at 0.9230 now with the SNB ever vigilant after holding 0.9220 yesterday amid some general USD dip demand and EURCHF holding 1.0420. EURCHF: Holding 1.0410-20 still with SNB shadow lurking still after failing at 1.0450 yet again where I've been warning sellers were poised.

AUDUSD: Underpinned at 0.7130 for the moment but failing above 0.7160 too Large option interest today at 0.7100-10 should we fall to 0.7100-10. USDCAD: A good hold of 1.2680 now but capping at 1.2720-30 as oil prices firm again and hence some CADJPY demand despite ome firmer USD tones generally. Option interest nearby.

Another crucial game for the once mighty Shrimpers away at Notts County tomorrow that I'll be attending for my sins. Old habits die hard. Better news though from our cricketers Down Under but with two days left to negotiate still if we're to eek out an unlikely draw. Some honour restored at least which is more than said for my football team right now.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a great week-end.

Interbank rates: 08.43 GMT

GBPUSD 1.3206

EURUSD 1.1289

EURGBP 0.8547

GBPEUR 1.1700

GBPJPY 150.04

GBPCAD 1.6784

GBPCHF 1.2192

GBPZAR 21.1087

GBPHKD 10.2828

USDJPY 113.63

EURJPY 128.28

EURCHF 1.0426

EURHKD 8.7887

AUDUSD 0.7151

USDCAD 1.2715

USDCHF 0.9235

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