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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Jury still out

Thursday 16 February 2023

More two-way business seen over the past 24 hours with some USD demand notable for much of yesterday then some USD sellers returning as risk sentiment turned higher but a litle demand returning this morning as I type. Markets continuing to second-guess the CBs. US data out today features weekly jobless claims, PPI, Philly Fed Index and Housing starts at 13.30 GMT. A couple of hawkish Fed heads after to keep in mind too.

Equities have seen their own two-way business but ultimately higher on the firmer risk tones currently prevailing as the CB second-guessing continues. WTI is trading off its $79.75 as this morning after a hold of $77.50 then $78.50 yesterday. Bids/support now $79.00, $78.50-60, $78.00, $77.50. Resistance/sellers $79.50, $79.75 $80.00, $80.50-60. Gold still tightly bound and holding $1830-35 bu failing at $1850 amid the uncertainty. Ukraine/Russia war continues to be the elephant in the room amid other geo-political risk.

Remember, focus on the price action and let the algos do the heavy lifting/dropping. The important thing is to identify your preferred risk/reward entry/exit levels prior and be poised to execute.

GBPUSD: Finally breaking down through 1.2000 yesterday but a hold of the next support line at 1.1980-85 per my tweet at the time and a decent bounce to 1.2075 before capping. EURGBP: Further rallying as GBP supply returned post-UK inflation but failing around 0.8900. Bids 0.8860-80 so expect some more two-way trading as core pairs fluctuate. GBPJPY: A support line now forming at 161.00 again after the hold of 160.75-80 a few times yesterday but capping around 161.40 with sellers poised still amid the generally fickle risk sentimenmt.

EURUSD: Holding 1.0660 yesterday and now 1.0680-90 in the latest retreat but failing at 1.0720 again and some re-sells placed. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side still but caution required. USDJPY: Finally capping into 134.40 after the hold of 133.30-50 and now 133.60 in the retreat.

Plenty more to read in my full report and more detailed update for traders plus my 1-2-1 mentoring sessions. Mail for more info.

Interbank rates: 08.22 GMT

GBPUSD 1.2062

EURUSD 1.0722

EURGBP 0.8887

GBPEUR 1.1251

USDJPY 133.61

EURJPY 143.34

GBPJPY 161.27

GBPCAD 1.6125

GBPCHF 1.1117

GBPZAR 21.7335

GBPHKD 9.4025

EURCHF 0.9883

EURHKD 8.3578

AUDUSD 0.6925

NZDUSD 0.6300

USDCAD 1.3375

USDCHF 0.9227

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