Jury still out
Thursday 16 February 2023
More two-way business seen over the past 24 hours with some USD demand notable for much of yesterday then some USD sellers returning as risk sentiment turned higher but a litle demand returning this morning as I type. Markets continuing to second-guess the CBs. US data out today features weekly jobless claims, PPI, Philly Fed Index and Housing starts at 13.30 GMT. A couple of hawkish Fed heads after to keep in mind too.
Equities have seen their own two-way business but ultimately higher on the firmer risk tones currently prevailing as the CB second-guessing continues. WTI is trading off its $79.75 as this morning after a hold of $77.50 then $78.50 yesterday. Bids/support now $79.00, $78.50-60, $78.00, $77.50. Resistance/sellers $79.50, $79.75 $80.00, $80.50-60. Gold still tightly bound and holding $1830-35 bu failing at $1850 amid the uncertainty. Ukraine/Russia war continues to be the elephant in the room amid other geo-political risk.
Remember, focus on the price action and let the algos do the heavy lifting/dropping. The important thing is to identify your preferred risk/reward entry/exit levels prior and be poised to execute.
GBPUSD: Finally breaking down through 1.2000 yesterday but a hold of the next support line at 1.1980-85 per my tweet at the time and a decent bounce to 1.2075 before capping. EURGBP: Further rallying as GBP supply returned post-UK inflation but failing around 0.8900. Bids 0.8860-80 so expect some more two-way trading as core pairs fluctuate. GBPJPY: A support line now forming at 161.00 again after the hold of 160.75-80 a few times yesterday but capping around 161.40 with sellers poised still amid the generally fickle risk sentimenmt.
EURUSD: Holding 1.0660 yesterday and now 1.0680-90 in the latest retreat but failing at 1.0720 again and some re-sells placed. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side still but caution required. USDJPY: Finally capping into 134.40 after the hold of 133.30-50 and now 133.60 in the retreat.
Plenty more to read in my full report and more detailed update for traders plus my 1-2-1 mentoring sessions. Mail firstname.lastname@example.org for more info.
Interbank rates: 08.22 GMT