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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Jury still out amid variable risk sentiment

Tuesday 10 August 2021

Greenback still underpinned helped by hawkish FOMC members up to the mic, the Pound is generally still feeling some love since the slightly hawkish BOE tones on Thursday but with rally sellers poised while CHF weakness was notable yesterday with USDCHF and EURCHF rising steadily and CHFJPY dropping all per my tweet. SNB can't be ruled out putting a floor underneath USDCHF/EURCHF with one eye on the generally soggy Euro. Gold and oil have steadied since their recent tumbles but risk remains fragile amid all the economic unknowns, COVID, and Central Bank uncertainty.

Patience and discipline in trading are key as ever and not being greedy as we continue to range tightly overall. Still some good two-way pips to be had as the jury remains out so picking your moments and levels are more important than ever.

GBPUSD: 1.3850 support now broken but next line of bids/support at 1.1830 and pips banked again per ongoing strategy. EURGBP testing lows helping to underpin GBPUSD.I remain a rally seller overall while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always.EURGBP: 0.8485-00 presenting good resistance as I warned yesterday and now testing 0.8465 support as I type amid the softer Euro/firmer GBP double whammy.GBPJPY: 152.60 still supporting as I highlighted here yesterday support as core pairs find dip demand and USDJPY tests 110.50 but sellers still poised around 153.20

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. These are risk sentiment markets and ever fickle so good/tight position management essential.

EURUSD: Capped at 1.1770 yesterday as the pair continues to feel heavy but finding support at 1.1725-30 so far. Large option interest above 1.1800 today but not in play anymore seemingly. Maybe their impact already made in the 1.1830-50 cap amid general EUR supply elsewhere with cross flows very much making an impact still.

USDJPY: A good hold of 110.00 and now testing 110.50 amid the firmer USD tones.EURJPY: 129.65-90 now providing resistance but underpinned at 129.40-50 again. Rally sellers still poised on core pairs. USDCHF: 0.9180 now providing good support amid the USD demand/EURUSD retreat with the SNB always keeping an eye on matters too and a decent rally yesterday per my tweet. EURCHF: 1.0750 duly held and 1.0780 now becomes the new base with SNB shadow ever present but sellers still poised.

AUDUSD: A failure above 0.7360 amid the USD demand and pushed the pair back down to 0.7320-30. Notable option interest nearby today and helping to keep the pair contained. USDCAD: Finding support at 1.2540 again helped by firmer USD but capping at 1.2590 this time as we continue to range tightly amidthe CADJPY oil/risk related action.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 08.12 BST

GBPUSD 1.3850

EURUSD 1.1738

EURGBP 0.84774

GBPEUR 1.1800

GBPJPY 152.91

GBPCAD 1.7409

GBPZAR 20.5486

GBPHKD 10.7379

USDJPY 110.40

EURJPY 129.57

EURCHF 1.0798

EURHKD 9.1000

AUDUSD 0.7339

USDCAD 1.2563

USDCHF 0.9200

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