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  • Mike Paterson

Jury still out as another week begins

Monday 20 June 2022

Just back from a music festival so a little delayed in getting this to you as I warned on Friday. Thanks for your patience. At least I didn't bunk off school for the day!

Still trying to fully catch-up but with US holiday today it seems for the moment that markets and traders still making their mind up after last week's plethora of CB action/inaction. Variable USD and risk tones so far in Asia and early Europe. ECB comments out on rate hikes and fragmentation risk. Meanwhile Emmanuel Macron has lost his absolute majority in the French legislative elections, signaling a new era of coalitions, agreements, and consensus for French politics. Euro not affected so far one to watch as the Far Right continue to make gains.

As ever, deal on fact not second-guessing. Be ready with your preferred levels/strategy, place orders and let the algos do the heavy work. Discipline is key as always but equally hesitation can often ruin a great idea.

GBPUSD: Some decent two-way business again between 1.2350 and 1.2170 and some pips banked again and remain poised to sell rallies but timing as ever is crucial. EURGBP: Holding 0.8525-30 and testing 0.8600 again as jury remains out and plenty of noise coming out of the ECB still.GBPJPY: 164-166 covers it for the moment afer all the BOE/BOJ fallout. Variable risk tones helping to keep contained too.

EURUSD: 1.0450 support on Friday but equally a decent cap at 1.0550 since amid the cross flows/risk/usd variables and the ECB comments. USDJPY: Some good two-way business still since the BOJ-led rally in a 133.50-135.50 range and currently finding support into 134.50 in the earlier retreat today. Some dip demand still expected for the moment but I prefer the short-side overall.EURJPY: Finding a base at 141.00 but sellers still poised on softer risk sentiment as/when it returns each time.

USDCHF: A further hold of 0.9620-30 sellers still poised into 0.9700-30. As I said on Friday SNB have opened a can of worms so let's see how they deal with it.EURCHF: Still struggling to make much progress above 1.0200 as markets continue to evaluate the SNB position but holding 1.0130 again after extended dip to test 1.0100 on Friday.

AUDUSD: Holding 0.6900 in the extended retreat on Friday and now looking at 0.7000 again. GBPAUD capping above 1.7650 again and now looking at 1.7500 again.NZDUSD finding a good hold of 0.6300 this time but capping at 0.6360 as I type amid some general USD demand. GBPNZD finding support at 1.9250 as I type after capping at 1.9350.

USDCAD: Supported at 1.2950-60 now but capped at 1.3075 by some CADJPY demand and oil off its lows

Let's continue to be careful out there.

Interbank rates: 10.30 BST

GBPUSD 1.2243

EURUSD 1.0532

EURGBP 0.8602

GBPEUR 1.1625

GBPJPY 165.04

GBPCAD 1.5916

GBPCHF 1.1795

GBPZAR 19.5787

GBPHKD 9.5373

USDJPY 134.83

EURJPY 142.00

EURCHF 1.0153

EURHKD 8.2042

AUDUSD 0.6992

USDCAD 1.2990

USDCHF 0.9637

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